The National Intelligence Bulletin is a weekly look at threats to social, political, economic, and financial stability in the United States, and provides early warnings and indications of America’s volatile future. This report is available each week for Intelligence subscribers.
In this National Intelligence Bulletin…
- InFocus: Christchurch shooting, Andrew Yang, and America’s future?
- DSA members describe preparations for Sanders campaign
- ‘America will be socialist in the 21st century’
- Yang: Unchecked tribalism will tear America apart
- Democrats remain committed to lowering the voting age
- Jeb! pushes a Republican challenger for Trump 2020
- Beto supports remaking of the Supreme Court
- Politics/Governance Wrap-Up
- Far Left Roll-Up
- Economic Financial Watch
InFocus: Last night, conservative commentator Jack Posobiec got into a minor tiff via Twitter with Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang, over a recent speech Yang gave to Asian Americans.
Andrew Yang: White people will be shooting up Asian churches within a generation pic.twitter.com/sqEsOl55Ms
— Jack Posobiec ☘️ (@JackPosobiec) March 14, 2019
And so, what do you think the attitude is going to be over time for the shrinking, insecure white majority that’s losing their jobs for, let’s say, Chinese Americans or Asian Americans? … I think we’re one generation away from falling into the same camps as the Jews… We’re probably one generation away from Americans shooting up a bunch of Asians… That is the great danger that I fear my children are going to grow up in.
Yang took a lot of flack for his comments, and most of the criticism piled on from conservatives who accused Yang of engaging in racist rhetoric. I thought he actually brought up a good point about just how much more radically tribal American society could get. (I’ll have more on Yang’s comments in PIR1.)
Just a few hours after that, news broke about the “eco-fascist” gunman who attacked two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand. The shooter, obviously radicalized by tribalism, intended to poison the well of American society. According to his manifesto, the shooter’s strategic goal was to ‘accelerate’ the decline of the West by empowering the Left in America to take up anti-gun legislation and crack down on right wing rhetoric, which he hoped would trigger a civil war.
The shooter makes that clear when he described why he carried out the attack:
To create an atmosphere of fear and change in which drastic, powerful [sic] and revolutionary action can occur.
Finally, to create conflict between the two ideologies within the United States on the ownership of firearms in order to further the social, cultural, political and racial divide within the United States. This conflict over the 2nd Amendment and the attempted removal of firearms rights will ultimately result in a civil war that will eventually balkanize the US along political, cultural and, most importantly, racial lines.
You can currently download the manifesto here.
This is not dissimilar to Osama bin Laden’s hope that the 9/11 attacks would cause the United States to crack down on Muslims and attack Muslim countries, which bin Laden hoped would ignite an Islamic revolution against the West.
For now, the Left in America is predictably acting on the shooter’s hope by capitalizing on another “white supremacist” attack. This is going to provide the white identitarian movement more evidence of “anti-white” backlash, which is going to be used to radicalize more whites towards identitarianism, or white tribalism.
White tribalism and the identitarian movement has increased significantly in the past several years as mass immigration floods Europe with third world economic migrants. According to the last census in 2011, London is just 45 percent white. Native Germans are a minority in Frankfurt. There are countless examples of native Europeans becoming minorities in European cities. And child sex abuse, rape gangs, and sexual assault attacks are up in many places in Europe where Islamic immigration has increased. There is undoubtedly a connection, yet Western globalists remain committed to the displacement of native Europeans by Middle Eastern and African immigrants.
The irony here is that the Leftist policies of mass immigration and forced multiculturalism do more to radicalize whites than the Christchurch shooter ever could. The shooter wanted to accelerate ethnic conflict, while the Left remains committed to its certainty. – S.C.
Priority Intelligence Requirements:
PIR1: What are the new significant indicators of disruptive political, social, or cultural conditions or events?
PIR2: What are the new significant indicators of threats to economic or financial stability?
PIR1: What are the new significant indicators of disruptive political, social, or cultural conditions or events?
DSA members describe preparations for Sanders campaign
Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) member Jeremy Gong, who sits on the DSA’s national political committee, appeared on a podcast this week to discuss the future of DSA and the Bernie Sanders campaign.
“We have initiated an endorsement process considering the question of whether or not DSA should endorse Bernie Sanders… [S]oon this month, we’re going to have a national political committee meeting… If we do endorse Sanders, we will launch a campaign in support of him… Obviously, I support the idea that DSA would endorse Bernie Sanders, so I hope that we do go through endorsing him. And I think that it will be a transformation experience, not just for building DSA but for introducing a serious and viable left, radical political pull into this country,” Gong said. (Bold for emphasis.)
Gong later went on to say that there were three imperatives for socialists in Congress. The first is “to emphasize class struggle of workers against bosses.” The second is to “promote socialism, unequivocally.” And three, “They have to stand up to the Democratic Party.” A fourth imperative that Gong added was, “To build organizations from below.”
That reminded me of a recent talk from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the SXSW festival here in Austin, in which she advised, “Stop trying to navigate systems of power and start building your own power… Stop trying to navigate those systems. They weren’t built for you. We need to build our own systems and recognize the other.” I’m still not entirely sure what those ‘other systems of power’ would be, other than grassroots organizations. This is something I’m investigating.
Another DSA member on the podcast warned that a Sanders campaign would be a let down for some DSA members. “We should be absolutely preparing for the scenario where, if Bernie Sanders moves forward in this election to the general election, we have to be prepared in DSA to understand that he’s going to have to move right, both because of pressures of the establishment — the Democratic Party establishment — because of donors and because the pressure to win the moderate vote.”
‘America will be socialist in the 21st century’
Appearing on a podcast published by The Nation, national affairs correspondent John Nichols is certain that America will be a socialist country in the 21st century. Here’s his reasoning:
“We’re 30 years into globalization; 20 years into a digital revolution, changing everything about how we communicate; 8-10 years into an automation revolution that is, and will, change everything about how we work. So when we understand that, as we move towards gig economies, as we move to a real transition of workplace… you’re going to need some guarantees that, in many cases, a lot of people used to get from their workplace. That’s certainly in the area of healthcare, but also education; a host of other demands, if you will. America will move in the 21st century toward a social welfare state… This isn’t a debatable point. We will either do it or we will have a chaos that will ultimately not just destroy society but destroy our economy.” (Bold for emphasis.)
This along the lines of a 2014 from Amazon investor Nick Hanauer, who gave a Ted Talk entitled, “Beware Fellow Plutocrats: The Pitchforks are Coming”. He warned that wealth inequality will drive social unrest:
“So what do I see in our future today? I see pitchforks. As in, angry mobs with pitchforks… The problem is that inequality is at historic highs today, and it’s getting worse every day. And if wealth, power, and income continue to concentrate at the very tippy top, our society will change from a capitalist democracy to a neo-feudalist, rentier society like 18th century France. That was, you know, France before the revolution and the mobs with the pitchforks… You show me a highly unequal society and I will show you a police state or an uprising. The pitchforks will come for us if we do not address this. It’s not a matter of if, it’s when.” [source]
I’ve seen numerous warnings along these lines coming from undoubtedly progressive voices. More recently, Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang has had similar warnings.
Yang: Unchecked tribalism will tear America apart
In a series of tweets last night, Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang described a potentially dark future for America.
I have the feeling that if we looked up the ownership of 300 million firearms in the United States we know where the majority of them would be both absolutely and proportionally. This is not racism. It’s math.
We are the most heavily armed country in the history of the world. Everyone knows what I think is ahead. Why would one imagine disintegration to be gentle? It will not be. For any of us.
My campaign is about calling out the reality of what is happening to us. We are being ground up. It is tearing us apart. It will take Herculean efforts to keep us together. Pretending that the descent will be gentle doesn’t help anyone.
Tribalism is part of human nature. When tribalism is distorted, amplified and poisoned terrible tragedies occur and atrocities become possible. The goal is to keep that from happening. That is our challenge. [source]
One reason Yang promotes the Universal Basic Income is due to the coming losses from automation, but also to assuage ethnic friction.
This goes back to what David Frum, former George W. Bush speech writer, spoke about a couple of weeks ago.
“… we need a stronger sense of American nationhood. And as the country becomes more diverse, that becomes ever more important, because if we’re not a nation as compared to other nations then we’re tribes within a nation.”
Frum argued that ethnic identity change was leading to national identity change, and that Americans need something distinctly “American” to unite them. That’s why he argues in favor of a national healthcare system. But Frum also argues that America should adopt a strict immigration policy so we can assimilate those who are already here.
Yang argues that a universal basic income ($1,000 per month) he calls the “freedom dividend” could be a uniting force, despite growing ethnic differences.
Democrats remain committed to lowering the voting age
In a recent press conference, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says she “couldn’t be prouder” of the House passing H.R. 1, which would lower the voting age to 16. “I, myself, have always been in favor of lowering the voting age to 16. I think it’s really important to capture kids when they’re in high school, when they’re interested in all of this, when they’re learning about government, to be able to vote.” [source]
Jeb! pushes a Republican challenger to Trump
Former presidential candidate Jeb Bush weighed in this week on a primary challenger to President Trump. Speaking on former Obama advisor David Axelrod’s podcast, The Axe Files, Jeb says: “I think someone should run just because Republicans ought to be given a choice… It’s hard to beat a sitting President, but to have a conversation about what it is to be a conservative, I think it’s important.”
Trump signals potential political violence?
In a Breitbart interview this week, President Trump seemed to state that the “tough people” were on his side, regarding the potential for political violence. “You know, the Left plays a tougher game, it’s very funny. I actually think that the people on the Right are tougher, but they don’t play it tougher. Okay? I can tell you I have the support of the police, the support of the military, the support of the Bikers for Trump – I have the tough people, but they don’t play it tough — until they go to a certain point, and then it would be very bad, very bad.” [source] Even if President Trump didn’t intend for the comments to come off that way, left wing political pundits are running with it, accusing President Trump of threatening political violence.
Beto supports remaking of the Supreme Court
To add to the list of substantial federal reforms proposed by progressives and the left wing at large, we can add a remaking of the Supreme Court. Previously, we’ve seen proposals to abolish the Senate, abolish the Electoral College, add Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico as states, and pack the Supreme Court with several progressive judges.
Now that Robert France “Beto” O’Rourke has entered the race, he’s proposing his own reform. At a campaign stop in Iowa, Beto said: “What if there were five justices selected by Democrats, five justices selected by Republicans and those 10 then pick five more justices independent of those who picked the first 10. I think that’s an idea we should explore.” Beto’s proposal would also set term limits for Supreme Court justices. [source]
VDH: Trump has 55 percent chance of winning
Historian and Hoover fellow Victor Davis Hanson (full disclosure, he’s a personal hero of mine) has a new book coming out called The Case for Trump. This week, Hanson said during an interview that while the 2020 election was still early, he thinks Trump has a 55 percent chance of being re-elected… which is little more than a coin toss. Scary.
Yang campaign being memed into reality
I continue to be fascinated with the campaign of Andrew Yang, the Silicon Valley venture capitalist running in the Democratic primary. First, he’s meming his way into reality as his Millennial backers push him on social media.
Even some on the Right are toying with the idea of supporting him, for two reasons. First, he needed 65,000 donors to make the Democratic debates. He made that earlier this week, maybe with the help of numerous $1 donations from younger right wing donors who wanted to see him on stage. And second, some on the Right see Yang’s universal basic income plan of $1,000 per month as accelerationist policy to collapse the United States — something they actually mention, probably tongue-in-cheek. Likely few right wingers are sincere in their support of Yang. The rest are in it for the lulz (40 and older: that means kicks…).
There’s a pretty good video of Yang speaking which illustrates his draw of younger people.
“First, [his friend Eric Weinsten] said that we never knew that capitalism was going to get eaten by its son, technology, which is where we are now. The second thing he said is that this economy is making liars of us all because you go around selling this growth model and you tell people… ‘Hey, join me and this growth model will be yours and the riches will be yours.’ But the growth model is breaking down right and left, and no one’s telling you this… So they’re making liars of these institutions.” [source]
Yang is polling at one percent, which is higher than much bigger names like Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-CA). While he stands an approximately zero percent chance of picking up the nomination, he’s bringing to light what he’s previously described as a tsunami of social and economic change as robotics, automation, and artificial intelligence increasingly replace U.S. workers.
Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke announced that he’s running for president, causing some to worry if his home state of Texas is in play to be turned blue. Last week, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi warned that Texas would be “ground-zero for us in the next election.” If Texas is turned blue and remains so, the GOP would almost certainly be locked out of future presidential races. As for Robert Francis, he warned: “The challenges that we face right now … They will either consume us, or they will afford us the greatest opportunity to unleash the genius of the United States of America.”
In a New York Times column, “woke” columnist Jamelle Bouie writes “The Trouble with Joe Biden,” in which Bouie points out Biden’s historic opposition to racially integrated busing in Delaware. In 1975, Biden said, “I do not buy the concept, popular in the ’60s, which said, ‘We have suppressed the black man for 300 years and the white man is now far ahead in the race for everything our society offers. In order to even the score, we must now give the black man a head start, or even hold the white man back, to even the race. I don’t buy that.” Bouie pointed out that the quote is problematic for Biden’s presidential run. Bouie continues: “Biden could lead Democrats to victory over Trump, but his political style might affirm the assumptions behind Trumpism. The outward signs of our political dysfunction would be gone, but the disease would still remain.”
Far Left Roll-Up
Speaking about impeachment, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) said, “[T]here may be grounds for removal of office or there may be grounds for indictment after [Trump] leaves office that the Congress discovers.”
Weighing in on Joe Biden’s recent remarks that Vice President Mike Pence was a “decent guy,” for which he later apologized, Sen. Elizabeth Warren said, “Anyone who engages in the kind of homophobia and attacks on people who are different from himself is not an honorable person. That’s not what honorable people do.”
In response to President Trump’s budget proposal, Sen. Bernie Sanders asked Medicare officials during Senate testimony, “You obviously studied how many people would die as a result of a lack of access to health care. What kind of conclusion did you reach? How many thousands do you think will die because of massive cuts to Medicare and Medicaid?”
“I’m not for impeachment. This is news. I’m going to give you some news right now because I haven’t said this to any press person before. But since you asked, and I’ve been thinking about this: Impeachment is so divisive to the country that unless there’s something so compelling and overwhelming and bipartisan, I don’t think we should go down that path, because it divides the country. And he’s just not worth it.” – House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
“In the absence of very graphic evidence, it would be difficult to get the support in the Senate needed to make an impeachment successful. Again, my feeling is let’s see what Bob Mueller produces. But the evidence would have to be pretty overwhelming.” – Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), House Intelligence Committee chairman
#LeadFromTheOutside, I explore how to be intentional about plans, but flexible enough to adapt. 20 years ago, I never thought I’d be ready to run for POTUS before 2028. But life comes at you fast… Now 2020 is definitely on the table.” – Stacey Abrams
“My task is to make certain that a Democrat is elected not only to the White House but that we have a Democratic majority in the Senate and a Democratic majority in Congress.” – Stacey Abrams
“Record highs – suicides, drug overdoses, anxiety, depression, financial insecurity. Record or multi-decade lows – business formation, labor force participation, interstate migration, marriage, childbirths. Life expectancy has declined for 3 years. We feel sick because we are.” – Andrew Yang, Democratic presidential candidate
“You don’t want to divide the country, so you have to think you have such a case that once the case is finished being presented, enough people understand you had to do it [impeachment]… If you do it, you don’t [want to] have half the country saying for the next 30 years: We won the election, you stole it.” – Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY)
“When we get to that point, it’ll be time to move [on impeachment] — assuming that the facts lead us to that conclusion, which I suspect that they will. And many agree with me.” – Rep. Hank Johnson (D-GA)
“History will judge whether the GOP is seen as the party that sold its principles to protect a corrupt, criminal president, or the party that put country first, did the right thing and supported the impeachment process.” – Tom Steyer, billionaire Democratic backer who’s funding the impeachment movement
“It’s interesting to me that, when it comes to ‘Medicare for All,’ health care, the response there has been, ‘We need to write a big check. When it comes to tuition-free or debt-free college, the answer has been, ‘We need to write a big check.’ And so, if the issue is compensating the descendants of slaves, I don’t think the argument about writing a big check ought to be the argument that you make, if you’re making an argument that a big check needs to be written for a whole bunch of other stuff. So, if, under the Constitution, we compensate people because we take their property, why wouldn’t you compensate people who actually were property?” – Julian Castro, Democratic presidential candidate
”They chose to work at Fox [News] and they don’t get to hide behind the fact that they’re excellent journalists or anchors. The fact is they work at a place that has done tremendous damage to this country.” – CNN’s Jeff Zucker, on Fox’s news division anchors
“I will be totally honest: in a primary field this strong with this many talented candidates, I wish men would just collectively decide not to run.” – Jill Filipovic
“Democracy means preventing an aristocracy. Democracy should mean taking power and wealth from those who hoard it and making sure it belongs to everyone.” – Waleed Shahid, communications director of Justice Democrats
PIR2: What are the new significant indicators of threats to economic or financial stability?
After mortgage rates fell from November highs (from 5.20 percent to 4.60 percent), mortgage applications are currently at multi-year highs for this time of year. Total housing construction also bounced back in January from month-over-month decreases in November and December.
According to a new Bankrate survey, one-fifth (21 percent) of working Americans likely have zero or near-zero savings. (Analyst Comment: This is obviously going to have consequences during the next economic recession. It could also increase voter turnout in favor of candidates who promise social programs directed at them.)
Regarding the still-pending U.S.-China trade deal, President Trump said that he’s in “no rush” to make a deal that didn’t meet his demands. China continues to block out U.S. competitors of major Chinese corporations and force technology transfers from U.S. corporations doing business in China. The U.S. remains the target of $300-600 billion in annual intellectual property theft via Chinese economic and industrial espionage. As long as the Chinese economy continues to turn downward, President Trump’s advantage grows. Just don’t expect major concessions from China. The Chinese Communist Party will lie, cheat, and steal, regardless of whatever deal they sign.
President Trump’s latest budget proposal is dead on arrival, according to several Democrats. Trump is requesting $8.6 billion for the border wall. The budget also projects three percent economic growth for the next five years.
Writing in an op-ed last week, former Obama economic advisor Larry Summers warned that the U.S. was in a period of “secular stagnation,” pointing out, by several metrics, this economy is not in great shape. “The result [will be] extremely low interest rates, weak demand, and low growth and inflation, along with the bidding up of the price of existing capital assets.”
In 2017, President Trump’s budget proposal predicted a $488 billion budget deficit for fiscal year 2020. In his latest proposal, the budget deficit rises to $1.1 trillion for FY2020. This is likely to begin the first of several years of trillion-dollar budget deficits, which could become the norm for the foreseeable future.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker shows a projected 0.2 percent economic growth for Q1 2019. The latest Blue Chip consensus, last updated earlier this month, shows 1.5 percent, which is expected to drop, as well.
On the bright side, some economists are predicting Q2 will return to 3 percent GDP growth. High Frequency Economics’ chief economist writes, “The backdrop for consumers still looks consistent with solid growth in spending, suggesting some catch-up in the next few months….we expect the extra weakness in Q1 to be offset by catch-up in Q2, and we are raising our estimate for Q2 to 3.2% from 2.3%.”
These economic/financial briefs appear each morning in the Early Warning intelligence report. You can sign up for this email on your My Account page.