[Strategic Intel] How a trade war between the U.S., China could happen – Forward Observer Shop

[Strategic Intel] How a trade war between the U.S., China could happen

As the Trump administration reviews its policy options regarding the massive U.S. trade imbalance with China, one of the president’s options is to impose sanctions, tariffs, and other punitive measures aimed at offsetting the imbalance. But a trade war could ensue, and if that were to happen, who would come out on top?

One expert doesn’t believe it will be the U.S.

Here is an excerpt from a report of how a U.S.-China trade war would play out:

China would likely win a trade war with the US if Washington decides to exert regulatory pressure on the world’s second-largest economy, top US China expert Nicholas Lardy said at a panel discussion in New York on Tuesday.

Lardy, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, was quoted by UPI as saying that the Chinese are better poised to counter the fallout that would result from such an economic clash.

He explained that trade deficits arise for more complicated reasons, and the Trump administration is simplifying the issue in blaming foreign governments, including China’s.

“The only way to deal with a trade deficit is raise savings and investment rates,” Lardy said, referring to the reason deficits occur. In other words, Americans are consuming and spending more than they produce.

Recent US tax reform is harmful, the China expert added.

“Repeal tax reform,” he said. “Because the tax reform is going to make the US global trade and current account deficit go up.”

Read the rest of the report here.

Information in this article helps satisfy Priority Intelligence Requirement 2:  What is the current situation report and risk of war in each of the four flashpoints? To subscribe to one of our threat intelligence newsletters: Click here.

Jon E. Dougherty is a political, foreign policy and national security analyst and reporter with nearly 30 years of experience in both fields. A U.S. Army veteran of Operation Enduring Freedom, he holds BA in Political Science from Ashford University and an MA in National Security Studies/Intelligence Analysis from American Military University.

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