Early Warning & Indications – 03 August 2017

Back in April, I emailed subscribers and asked for their opinions on a daily email. At that time, my plan was to introduce a Daily Intelligence Digest, which would have been a roll-up of our previous day’s reporting. I received a massive response, so it’s obviously something in which you’re interested.

I thought to myself, If subscribers were to receive a daily email, what would give them the absolute most value?

As we prepare to move into our new website in less than two weeks, I’d like to announce (finally) that I’m moving forward with a daily email, but a little bit different that what I had initially planned…

The Early Warning & Indications (EWI) email is the absolute best value I can add. What we’ll roll out in just over a week is a daily email with a brief summary of what’s going on that day and why it’s important. It’s the best way we can allow you to ‘front run’ the day, and cut through the clutter that is the morning news. I really want to deliver the signal — and not the noise — every morning, Monday through Thursday. On Friday, I’ll continue to publish the weekly intelligence summary.

Of course, we don’t have a crystal ball, so don’t expect us to predict the future. But what you can expect is to receive some insight on current events and why they matter. It’s my opportunity to help Forward Observer subscribers understand what’s happening day-to-day, because I recognize that a weekly report each Friday is not sufficient for the most avid of intelligence consumers.

If you’re subscribed to the Newsletter, then you will continue to receive a weekly email from me about current events. If you’re a member of the Forward Observer community — a monthly, annual, or lifetime subscriber — then you can opt-in to the daily EWI email. If you’re not a subscriber and would like to begin receiving these daily EWIs, then you can support us in our mission by becoming a subscriber.

Once you read this format, would you please take a moment to provide me some feedback? Let me know what you think of the daily EWI and if it would add value to your situational understanding.

Without further ado, here’s the EWI for 03 August 2017

Today I want to address what’s happening with North Korea. In the past week, both North Korea and the USA have test-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs. What was unique about North Korea’s last launch is that it occurred at night. Perhaps this was not a test of the missile itself, but a test of North Korea’s ability to launch in darkness.

On Tuesday, Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) warned, “There will be a war with North Korea over the missile program if they continue to try to hit America with an ICBM. [President Trump has] told me that. I believe him.” He continued: “There is a military option: To destroy North Korea’s program and North Korea itself. I prefer the diplomatic approach. But they will not be allowed to have a missile to hit America with a nuclear weapon on top.”

This week, SECSTATE Tillerson is expected to travel to the Philippines, Thailand, and Malaysia, according to a recent State Department release. Although Tillerson said this week that ‘regime change’ was not a US foreign policy goal, he did reiterate to North Korea that, “We are not your enemy. We are not your threat. But you are presenting an unacceptable threat to us, and we have to respond.”

There are no signs of an imminent attack on either the US or North Korea, however, the situation is certainly fluid. The goal of the State Department is to “isolate” North Korea to encourage the Kim regime to begin multi-party peace talks, which might be unrealistic. But I do believe that North Korea represents the most likely scenario for war going forward, and it could begin without much warning.

EWI Links

Moscow calls new US sanctions “full-scale trade war”

National Security Advisor McMaster begins purge of Trump loyalists from the National Security Council

Turkey’s Erdogan replaces top military brass