Early Warning for 30 August 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Thursday, 30 August 2018. (All times Eastern.)

 

White House

The President is scheduled to receive his daily intelligence briefing, host a roundtable with supporters, and then speak at a Make America Great Again rally in Evansville, Indiana.


 

State Department

Secretary Pompeo: nothing significant to report.

Of note: From 26 August to 05 September, the Assistant Secretary for Economic and Business Affairs is on travel to Japan, Philippines, Singapore, and India, to discuss the Trump administration’s strategy to ensure “a free and open Indo-Pacific region”. That’s State Department-speak for preventing Chinese dominance in the region.


 

Defense Department

Defense Secretary Mattis: nothing significant to report.

SECDEF is scheduled to be in the Indo-Pacific in September and will then travel to Europe.

 

The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) was last reported as having returned to port in San Diego.

The Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) was last reported off the coast of Florida.

The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported back as participating in an exercise off the coast of southern California.

The Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) was last reported in port at Norfolk.

The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) was last reported in the Philippine Sea.

The George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) was last reported as having returned to port in Norfolk.

Conflict requiring a Carrier Strike Group does not appear imminent.


 

Congress

Significant House Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

* Reporting will appear in the Strategic Intelligence Summary or National Intelligence Bulletin.


 

Economy/Finance

– This week, the Bank of Mexico released a new forecast, lowering economic growth expectations. While the NATFA rework may help revise their predicted growth — 2-2.6 percent this year and 1.8-2.8 percent next year — Mexico’s president-elect, who takes over in December, will likely be pushing the White House for investment and economic development aid in Mexico.

– The Fed revised 2018’s second quarter GDP growth up to 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent. It’s not a big revision, but it does show that the economy is expanding by their calculations.


 

Weather

The National Hurricane Center reports a formation of a low pressure system off the coast of Africa, heading west/northwest. NHC reports an 80% chance of cyclone formation as it continues a westerly path. We should have a better idea on the potential risk it poses to the Atlantic coast or Gulf by the middle of next week.

REMINDER: This hurricane watch section will remain in this report through the end of the season. I check the latest from the National Hurricane Center each morning and will provide details as necessary.

 

Drought conditions persist across much of the Southwest. This map is updated every Thursday.

 

 


 

What I’m Looking at this Morning

Preparing for urban warfare, soldiers train for chemical attack in Detroit

China faces increased economic risks second half of 2018


 

Notable Quotable

I’d love to do it. But what I would prefer is, take one of the two Silicon Valley conservatives and let them start it. And then I’d help promote the platform and be all over that.” – Donald Trump, Jr., on promoting a conservative alternative to Twitter and Facebook

Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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