Early Warning for 28 September 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Friday, 28 September 2018. (All times Central.)

ADMIN NOTE: I will be out of the office next week. Mason and Jim will continue with their reporting duties. All reports, except for this one, will be published as scheduled. I will be back and resume publishing the Early Warning on Tuesday, 09 October.

 

White House

The President is scheduled to receive his intelligence briefing and is later scheduled to meet with the President of Chile.


 

State Department

Secretary Pompeo is scheduled to meet with leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council (+2), before meeting with a long list of foreign officials from Bangladesh, South Africa, Ethiopia, Bulgaria, and Nigeria.

Of Note: Secretary Pompeo says he will visit North Korea again next month to work on the next meeting between President Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.


 

Defense Department

Defense Secretary Mattis has no publicly scheduled events.

 

These are the last publicly reported locations of these ships. Conflict requiring an aircraft carrier/carrier strike group not appear imminent.

The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) was last reported as being in port of San Diego.

The Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) was last reported as being in port at Norfolk.

The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported as having returned to port in Bremerton, WA.

The Harry Truman (CVN-75) was last reported as being in the north Atlantic.

The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) was last reported as being in port at Guam.

The George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) was last reported in the western Atlantic.


 

Congress

Significant House Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • The Judiciary Committee continues confirmation hearings for nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh.

* Only events pertinent to national security are listed.


 

Economy/Finance

In a speech on Wednesday, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell played down the risk of recession signaled by a flattening yield curve, saying: “There’s no reason to think that the probability of a recession in the next year or two is at all elevated. We look at the yield curve but it’s one factor. It’s not inverted now.” A cross over of the 10-year Treasury yield (3.037) below the 2-year yield (2.815) has been a reliable leading indicator of recession for the past 50 years.

 


 

Weather

HurricaneWatch: There are no active hurricanes in the Atlantic, however, Tropical Storm Kirk is headed through the Caribbean and expected to dissipate to a tropical depression over the weekend.

 

REMINDER: This hurricane watch section will remain in this report through the end of the season. I check the latest from the National Hurricane Center each morning and will provide details as necessary.

 

 

(This map is updated every Thursday.)


 

What I’m Looking at this Morning

Russia to arm jets with hypersonic air-to-air missile

Pompeo warns Russia, China to stop violating North Korean sanctions

Mattis: DoD will one day offer cybersecurity protection for private business


 

Notable Quotable

“By the end of this century a third of the world’s population, and a greater fraction of its young people, will be African. The future of Africa is synonymous with the future of the human race.” [source]

Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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