Early Warning for 27 June 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for 27 June 2018. (All times Eastern.)

Advanced Early Warning: CNN is reporting this morning that Alexandria Ocasio-Corteza, a 28-year-old Latina Millennial who is a Democratic Socialist, has unseated long-serving Democratic Rep. Joe Crowley in New York’s 14th congressional district. Crowley had outraised Ocasio-Corteza 10-to-1. She ran on a platform of universal health care, a federal jobs guarantee and the abolition of ICE.

ALSO: A writer for the popular progressive news website Splinter, Hamilton Nolan, is warning supporters of President Trump that the heckling of administration officials in public places is “just the beginning.” In a lengthy column, he heavily criticizes the Trump administration and intimates the next wave of protests could include 1970s’-style bombings directed at the president’s supporters. Samuel and I will have more on this in the National Intelligence Bulletin on Friday. — Jon


White House

After receiving his intelligence briefing at 11:30 p.m., President Trump will deliver remarks at the Face-to-Face With Our Future event. He’ll lunch with Secretary of State Pompeo at 12:45 p.m., then meet with the president of Portugal, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, at 2:05 p.m. POTUS then travels to Fargo, North Dakota, for a “Make America Great Again” rally. He departs for Milwaukee, Wis., afterward and will remain there overnight.


State Department

After having lunch with POTUS Trump, Secretary Pompeo will testify before the Senate Appropriations Committee, Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs on the FY2019 Budget at 2:30 p.m.

Deputy Secretary John Sullivan is on travel to the Netherlands, Denmark, Algeria, and Morocco, from June 25-29.


Defense Department

Secretary of Defense Mattis is traveling through the Indo-Pacific. He is meeting with defense officials in China, South Korea, and Japan.

Air Force Brig. Gen. Lance R. Bunch, assistant, deputy commanding general for Air, U.S. Forces-Afghanistan; and vice commander, 9th Air and Space Expeditionary Task Force-Afghanistan, U.S. Air Forces Central Command, will brief the media by video at 11:00 a.m. He will provide an update on the U.S. counter-threat finance campaign and U.S. air operations.

Aircraft carrier activities:

The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) is completing RIMPAC in the Pacific.

The Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) remains on patrol in the Mediterranean Sea while the Ronald Reagan (CVN-76 is on a port call to the Philippines.

All other carriers are in port.

No conflicts requiring a Carrier Strike Group appear imminent.


Congress

House:

The House has a full slate of committee meetings and hearings all day and we will cover anything significant in subsequent intelligence updates.

Senate:

There are several committee meetings in the Senate today as well. Developments will be covered in upcoming intelligence reports.

Significant congressional reporting:

  • The House is expected to vote on the so-called compromise immigration bill, but the legislation has been repeatedly delayed over an apparent lack of support.
  • Eighteen Democratic state attorneys general have filed suit against the Trump administration over family separations, arguing that the president’s executive order reversing the policy is vague and does not go far enough.
  • Also, a federal judge on Tuesday halted nearly all family separations at the U.S. border. The court order specifically requires federal officials to stop detaining parents apart from their minor children, absent a determination the parent is unfit or the parent declines reunification; reunify all parents with their minor children who are under the age of 5 within 14 days and reunify all parents with their minor children age 5 and older within 30 days.
  • The Secret Service has been temporarily dispatched to the home of White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders and now Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and his wife, Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, have been confronted by demonstrators.
  • Democrats are distancing themselves from Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), who has called on private citizens to confront any Trump administration official they come across in public.

Economy/Finance

(1) As the six-month ‘anniversary’ of the recently-passed tax cut/tax reform legislation approaches, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said he is expecting a big GDP number for the second quarter. Mnuchin cited the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s projected GDP growth of 4.7 percent for the second quarter, and while he said he’s not sure if growth will actually be that high, he noted that there were many doubters last year when the administration was predicting 3 percent growth, which it achieved in three of four quarters.

(2) American Enterprise Institute resident scholar Derek Scissors told Fox Business Network the U.S. will beat China in a “trade war” the more serious it becomes. “President Trump is right about that. China depends much more on the American market than we depend on the Chinese market.”


Weather

A weak, non-tropical low-pressure system located offshore of the southeastern coast of North Carolina continues to produce a small area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for development while this system moves northeastward away from the United States during the next couple of days.


Yesterday’s Significant Reporting

High court OKs Trump’s travel ban, rejects Muslim bias claim

Pence to discuss immigration with Central American leaders

Media framing Trump voters as Public Enemy No. 1


Notable Quotable

“Not being able to go to restaurants and attend parties and be celebrated is just the minimum baseline here. These people, who are pushing America merrily down the road to fascism and white nationalism, are delusional if they do not think that the backlash is going to get much worse.” — Splinter columnist Hamilton Nolan, warning that violence against Trump supporters is coming.

Jon E. Dougherty is a political, foreign policy and national security analyst and reporter with nearly 30 years of experience in both fields. A U.S. Army veteran of Operation Enduring Freedom, he holds BA in Political Science from Ashford University and an MA in National Security Studies/Intelligence Analysis from American Military University.

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