Early Warning for 26 June 2018

 Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for 26 June 2018. (All times Eastern.)

Advanced Early Warning: Some Republicans in the House are moving to censure Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., for encouraging supporters to harass Trump administration officials wherever they go. The measure also includes a demand for Waters to resign her seat. President Trump himself has publicly criticized her as well. It’s not clear yet if the measure will garner enough support to pass.

ALSO: U.S. corporations repatriated some $300 billion during the first quarter of this year after the Republican-led House and Trump passed tax reform legislation in December, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That is the most on record. Kevin Hassett, chair of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, says the inflow of money is continuing.

White House

After his daily intelligence brief, the president meets with the Associated Builders and Contractors National Executive Committee at the White House. At noon he will lunch with lawmakers, and at 1:30 p.m. he meets with James Conley Justice II, the governor of West Virginia. Trump presents the Medal of Honor at 3:30 p.m.

State Department

Secretary Pompeo meets with Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani at 9:00 a.m., then with Norwegian Foreign Minister Ine Marie Eriksen Søreide at 11:00 a.m. Both meetings will take place at the State Department.

Deputy Secretary Sullivan is on travel to the Netherlands, Denmark, Algeria, and Morocco until 29 June.

Secretary of Defense James N. Mattis is traveling. Deputy Secretary of Defense Patrick M. Shanahan and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Marine Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr. have no public or media events on their schedules.

Secretary Mattis departed on Sunday for the Indo-Pacific. He began his trip in Alaska where he visited Fort Greely and Eielson Air Force Base.

From June 26-28 Secretary Mattis will visit China where he will meet with several senior officials to exchange strategic perspectives and discuss areas of mutual concern. This will be the first visit of a Secretary of Defense to China since 2014.

He then travels to Seoul, South Korea to visit with the Korean Minister of National Defense Song Young-moo.

Secretary Mattis concludes his trip June 29 in Tokyo where he will meet with Japan’s Minister of Defense Itsunori Onodera.

Aircraft carrier activities:

The Harry S. Truman remains on patrol in the Mediterranean Sea while the Ronald Reagan made a port call to the Philippines. The John C. Stennis left port at San Diego and has returned to homeport in Bremerton. All other carriers are in port.

No conflicts requiring a Carrier Strike Group appear imminent.



The House has a full slate of committee meetings and hearings all day and we will cover anything significant in subsequent intelligence updates. The House itself is adjourned.


There are several committee meetings in the Senate today as well. Significant developments will be covered in upcoming intelligence reports.

Significant congressional developments:

The House is preparing to vote on a so-called compromise immigration bill amid an ongoing backlash against the Trump administration over the treatment of families arrested for crossing into the country illegally.

Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said it is “not American” to harass political opponents. Waters is digging in, saying she’s calling for “peaceful” protests. Democrats are largely separating themselves from Waters’s remarks but many are blaming Trump for setting the tone of the debate.


(1) Peter Navarro, one of Trump’s top advisors on trade, said the stock market was overreacting to fears the administration would overly restrict foreign investment as part of its ongoing trade spat with China and other countries. His comments came after news reports that had Wall Street reeling over the prospect that the U.S. could prevent companies that had at least 25 percent Chinese ownership from buying businesses that possessed “industrially significant technology.” Jon will address this further in this week’s Strategic Intelligence Summary.

(2) The price of homes in the U.S. grew at its slowest pace in April since 2011, according to data firm Case-Shiller. That said, the 20-City Composite Price has now surpassed the June 2006 record high. All 20 cities in the index showed year-over-year gains, led by a 13.1 percent increase in Seattle and a 12.7 percent advance in Las Vegas. Every major U.S. region is still seeing home prices accelerating faster than income growth.


A non-tropical area of low pressure is likely to form along a stationary front near the coast of North Carolina on Wednesday. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support this system acquiring some tropical characteristics over the next few days as the system moves eastward or northeastward away from the United States. There are no major storms approaching the U.S. or its possessions.

Yesterday’s Significant Reporting

Judge throws out SF and Oakland climate suits against big oil

FDA approves country’s first medicine made from marijuana

Turkey’s Erdogan claims election victory, opposition wary

Notable Quotable

“Mike Rounds and I had an amendment, it was the one that got the most votes on the floor of the Senate. We got 54 votes. It was in a sense DACA for the wall. And the wall was fully funded. The Democratic Caucus voted, I think, 46 out of 48 members, 49 members for it. That was a hard sell. But the White House itself torpedoed the bill. They threatened to veto, they sent out a scurrilous press release from DHS and we had the votes. We had probably 65, 67 votes. They killed it. They had the wall in their hand and they let it go because they wanted more.” — Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, explaining to NBC’s Chuck Todd that the Trump administration killed legislation that would have provided full funding for the president’s proposed border wall.

Jon E. Dougherty is a political, foreign policy and national security analyst and reporter with nearly 30 years of experience in both fields. A U.S. Army veteran of Operation Enduring Freedom, he holds BA in Political Science from Ashford University and an MA in National Security Studies/Intelligence Analysis from American Military University.

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