Early Warning for 25 July 2018 – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 25 July 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Wednesday, 25 July 2018. (All times Eastern.)


White House

The President is scheduled to:

  • meet with House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell,
  • have lunch with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo,
  • meet with European Union president Jean-Claude Juncker
  • and meet with members of Congress

EU President Juncker will be speaking with President Trump about trade issues; specifically alleviating the economic damage done by both tariffs and trade imbalances. In a speech yesterday, President Trump said: “What the European Union is doing to us is incredible. How bad? They made $151 billion last year, our trade deficit with the European Union. They sound nice, but they’re rough.”

State Department

Secretary Pompeo is scheduled to:

  • meet with the Egyptian General Intelligence Service Director this morning
  • have lunch with President Trump
  • meet with European Union president Jean-Claude Juncker
  • testify before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on “American Diplomacy to Advance our National Security Strategy”

Defense Department

Defense Secretary Mattis has no scheduled public events today.

The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) was last reported in the Hawaii Area of Operations (RIMPAC 2018). The Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) is at her home port of Norfolk, and the Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) is at port in Yokosuka, Japan. Conflict requiring a Carrier Strike Group does not appear imminent.


Significant House Activity:

  • The Committee on Homeland Security is scheduled to hold a hearing on federal cybersecurity risk.
  • The Committee on Homeland Security is also scheduled to hold a hearing on using innovation to enhance a “culture of preparedness”. *
  • The Committee on Oversight and Government Reform is scheduled to hold a hearing on cybersecurity.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • The Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation is scheduled to hold a hearing on “the race to 5G, focusing on exploring spectrum needs to maintain United States global leadership.”

* Reporting will appear in the Strategic Intelligence Summary or National Intelligence Bulletin.


-The Philadelphia Federal Reserve regional non-manufacturing index is forecasting a slight slowdown in economic activity. And Capital Economics joined a crowd of financial institutions and economists to forecast a recession next year: “The [yield] curve may have steepened in recent days but we still expect it to invert sometime next year, which will eventually be followed by an economic slowdown.”

– The Trump administration is scheduled to send a $12 billion aid package to farmers feeling the effects of foreign tariffs. WSJ reports: “The U.S. government plans to provide incremental payments to support prices of some of the hardest-hit commodities, including soybeans, sorghum, cotton, corn, wheat and pork, Vivian Salama and Jacob Bunge report. It’s a short-term solution for a sector that’s taken a series of hits. China, a huge market for U.S. agricultural exports, has applied tariffs on $34 billion worth of U.S. goods, including soybeans and pork. Other places applying retaliatory tariffs include allies such as Canada, Mexico and the EU.”

– The President’s strategy is to use tariffs against countries with trade surpluses with the U.S. to ‘get equal’ and explain the damage of tariffs. But some in Congress are worried. Nebraska Republican Senator Ben Sasse: “America’s farmers don’t want to be paid to lose—they want to win by feeding the world. This administration’s tariffs and bailouts aren’t going to make America great again, they’re just going to make it 1929 again.”


The National Hurricane Center reports that tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Drought conditions persist across much of the Southwest.


What I’m Looking at this Morning

DHS: Russian hackers have reached U.S. control rooms

Gallup: Immigration tops the list of most important issues

Navy, Marines to increase amphibious fleets as operational demand rises

Notable Quotable

“I am no longer the previous Michael Cohen that you knew — taking a bullet for Donald Trump, saying anything to defend him, being a good soldier. … That is over.” – Lanny Davis, attorney for former Trump attorney Michael Cohen


Mike Shelby is a former military intelligence NCO and contract intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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