Early Warning for 25 April 2019 – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 25 April 2019

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Thursday, 25 April 2019.


Politics & Governance

On Wednesday, President Trump tweeted that if House Democrats move to impeach him, he’d turn to the Supreme Court. “If the partisan Dems ever tried to Impeach, I would first head to the U.S. Supreme Court… We waited for Mueller and WON, so now the Dems look to Congress as last hope!” [source]

Analyst Comment: I’m not sure what the Supreme Court has to do with House impeachment, other than that Chief Justice John Roberts would preside over the Senate’s trial on removal. Earlier this week, President Trump said that he was ‘not at all’ worried about impeachment, and several key Democrats have publicly soured on impeachment, as well. Still, it could be that President Trump is worried about renewed obstruction charges as the White House continues to stonewall House Democrat investigations. Expecting that the administration would ignore subpoenas of current and former White House officials, Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-CA), chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, reportedly suggested imposing fines on those officials who didn’t comply. One White House official was already held in contempt of Congress earlier this week for noncompliance. And since Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin keeps pushing back compliance on requests for Trump’s tax returns, Mnuchin may be the next target for contempt. One number floating around for fines is $25,000 per day for noncompliance. The House could also take the Trump administration to court and allow a judge to either fine or jail officials who don’t show up for their subpoenas. Alternatively, the House might be able to cut appropriations for the departments whose officials aren’t showing up, including withholding pay for those specific officials. New rules like these would give the Congress some teeth in its relatively toothless efforts to enforce subpoena appearances.

In another Wednesday tweet, President Trump claimed that he’s sending ‘armed soldiers’ to the Mexican border. “Mexico’s Soldiers recently pulled guns on our National Guard Soldiers, probably as a diversionary tactic for drug smugglers on the Border. Better not happen again! We are now sending ARMED SOLDIERS to the Border. Mexico is not doing nearly enough in apprehending & returning!”

Analyst Comment: After the 13 April incident, Mexico’s Foreign Ministry admitted that “a group of Mexican soldiers came across two U.S. soldiers who were performing support operations in an unidentified vehicle located south of the border fence” but still north of the border on U.S. soil.

In a related development, Mexican authorities broke up a caravan of around 3,000 Central American migrants on Monday. The caravan dispersed into smaller groups and are still heading north to the U.S. border. Mexican authorities have done more to break up the caravans and not allow them to travel by bus through Mexico, but many say they’re still not doing enough. One migrant rights activist claimed, “If the migrants move quietly like a stream of little ants, [Mexican authorities will] allow them to [travel], but they are not going to allow them to move through Mexico publicly or massively… Nobody is ever going to be able to stop the flow of migration.”


Far Left Daily

“What’s the reason NOT to let incarcerated people vote? Shouldn’t the people most affected by unjust laws have some say in electing people to change them?” – AOC chief of staff Saikat Chakrabarti

“We want a federal jobs guarantee. We want to expand labor rights. We need to expand indigenous peoples’ rights. We need to give workers consistent access to healthcare. We need to provide childcare. We need to introduce regenerate agricultural practices.” – Aracelly Jiminez, Sunrise Movement spokesperson

“Racism and sexism are part of the fabric and the fiber and the founding of our country, and the way that the [Democratic] candidates are being treated, it just reminds you of that. We’re not past it.” – Leah Daughtry, former DNC official, complaining about white presidential candidates



Tomorrow we’ll find out the first estimates for first quarter economic growth in 2019. Already consensus is somewhere around 2.5 percent, with several firms (including the Atlanta Federal Reserve) going as high as 2.8 percent. Tomorrow’s initial number could later be revised, but anything near current expectations would be very good and is sure to cool talks of imminent recession.



Strategic/Defense Situational Awareness

DOD’s Joint AI Center to delivery initial capability in 2020

US urges allies to collaborate on cyber defense


Notable Quotable

“Masters insisted that slavery would last forever. It didn’t. Lords insisted that feudalism would last forever, and kings insisted the same about monarchy. Neither did. Employers act like capitalism will last forever. Don’t be fooled.” – Economist Richard Wolff, writing about the “cure for capitalism”

Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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