Early Warning for 22 October 2018 – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 22 October 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Monday, 22 October 2018. (All times Central.)


White House

The President is scheduled to receive his intelligence briefing, and tonight host a Make America Great Again Rally in Houston, Texas before returning to the White House. This week, the President is scheduled to hold rallies in Wisconsin and North Carolina.


State Department

Secretary Pompeo is scheduled to meet with Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve.


Defense Department

Defense Secretary Mattis and other senior officials have no publicly scheduled events.

Deployments: The Wasp Expeditionary Strike Group was last reported as underway in the South China Sea. The Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) was last reported as underway in the Atlantic to participate in Trident Juncture 2018 in Norway. Along with the Iwo Jima ARG are Marines from the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit who will be joining 700 Marines already in Norway. Trident Juncture 2018 began on 15 October, but most of the exercise will take place between 25 October and 07 November.

Of Note: The chief of the Michigan Army National Guard and other National Guard officials will participate in discussions of “how states are preparing for a cyber disruption event”. When we get access, we’ll include significant reporting in the National Intelligence Bulletin.

These are the last publicly reported locations of these ships. Conflict requiring an aircraft carrier/carrier strike group not appear imminent.

The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) was last reported as being underway in the Pacific Ocean.

The Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) was last reported as being in port at Norfolk.

The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported as being underway in the eastern Pacific.

The Harry Truman (CVN-75) was last reported as being in the North Sea. The carrier strike group will participate in the upcoming Trident Juncture 2018 exercise in Norway.

The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) was last reported as being in the South China Sea.

The George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) was last reported as having returned to port in Norfolk.



Significant House Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

* Only events pertinent to national security are listed.
** Significant reporting will appear in this week’s Strategic and National Intelligence reports.



Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross says he wants “quick negotiations that produce tangible results” when he and other U.S. trade officials meet with the European Union tomorrow. In July, the Trump administration struck a cease fire that prevented further measures in the short-lived trade war. President Trump hopes tomorrow’s negotiations will get the U.S. and Europe a step closer to “zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers, and zero subsidies on non-auto industrial goods.”

According to new data from Capital Economics, the world’s non-financial debt has risen to 240 percent of the global gross domestic product. In other words, global debt outside the financial sector — things like household debt, sovereign (nation-state) debt, and debt from non-financial corporations — has risen to nearly 2.5 times the entire economic output of the world for 2018. That’s around 30 percent higher than it was during the 2008 recession.


HurricaneWatch: The National Hurricane Center continues to show a picture in the Atlantic free of cyclone activity. About 39 days remain in “hurricane season,” which ends on 30 November. [source]


Drought Map

(Source: This map is updated every Thursday.)


Active Wildfires

(Source: This map is updated every Monday.)


What I’m Looking at this Morning

U.S. Air Force upgrades air base in Estonia

FICO to change how it calculates credit scores

Russian officials warns of ‘full chaos’ if U.S. backs out of nuke treaty

U.S. Navy may sail through Taiwan Strait, risking escalation with China

The Hill: Dems look like they could lose Senate seats


Notable Quotable

“We understand Mexico will detain and repatriate [migrants from the caravan] who enter Mexico in violation of Mexican law, and in instances where migrants apply for asylum, process the requests in accordance with Mexican law. We also understand that those who do not qualify will be returned [to their home countries] in a safe and orderly process, consistent with Mexican law.” – Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s press release

Mike Shelby is a former military intelligence NCO and contract intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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