Early Warning for 22 June 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for 22 June 2018. (All times Eastern.)

Advanced Early Warning: Time magazine ran a provocative cover this week featuring a 3-year-old crying Honduran girl and President Trump staring down at her dispassionately in a story criticizing his administration’s policy of separating some migrant children from their parents. It turns out the little girl was never separated from her mother, as the story reported, but the cover has nonetheless gone viral. We have more on our growing political divide later today in this week’s National Intelligence Bulletin.

ALSO: The European Union’s retaliatory tariffs on $3.4 billion worth of U.S. goods takes effect today. The levies have been imposed on a range of goods including bourbon, motorcycles, and jeans. They were imposed in response to Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on imports of European steel and aluminum.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said that the U.S. tariffs on the EU go against “all logic and history.”


White House

The president will participate in the credentialing ceremony for newly appointed ambassadors to Washington. In addition, Trump will make remarks on immigration with Angel Families at 2:30 p.m., then he will attend the United States Marine Corps Evening Parade this evening.


State Department

Secretary Pompeo will a working luncheon for Jordanian King Abdullah II Ibn Al Hussein at 12:30 p.m. Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan hosts Health Incidents Response Task Force meeting with interagency partners at the State Department.


Defense Department

Secretary of Defense James N. Mattis, Deputy Secretary of Defense Patrick M. Shanahan and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Marine Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr. have no public or media events on their schedules.

Air Force Gen. John Hyten, commander, U.S. Strategic Command, will provide testimony on space situational awareness at 9 a.m. to a joint hearing of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces and the House Science, Space and Technology Subcommittee on Space.

Aircraft carrier movement/activities:

Carl Vinson (CVN-70) is participating in the RIMPAC 2018 exercises in the Pacific Ocean.

Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) is operating in the Mediterranean Sea.

Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) is operating in the Philippine Sea.

The remaining U.S. carriers are in their home ports. A conflict requiring a Carrier Strike Group does not appear imminent.


Congress

House: There are a number of committee and subcommittee meetings scheduled this morning, but nothing for the afternoon.

Senate: There are no committee meetings scheduled for today. At 3:00 p.m. the chamber will convene to resume consideration of H.R.5895, Energy and Water, Legislative Branch, and Military Construction and Veterans Affairs Appropriations Act, 2019.


Economy

(1) OPEC has reportedly reached a deal to ramp up production by about 1 million bpd, though the actual level will likely be in the 600,000 – 800,000 bpd range because some members are not able to boost production levels. Output among the 24 nations has actually fallen by about 2.8 million bpd, due largely to cratering production in Venezuela and supply disruptions elsewhere. Despite the news, oil prices rose about 2 percent.

(2) The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose this morning, ending an eight-day slide streak, though the NASDAQ fell again slightly.

(3) A new study found that Social Security benefits buy about 34 percent less today than they did in 2000. That means the cost of goods and services common among retirees have collectively risen faster than the cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, that Social Security recipients get every year. About 47 million older Americans receive Social Security. In sum, Social Security benefits comprise about one-third of their income.


Yesterday’s Significant Reporting

High Court: Online shoppers can be forced to pay sales tax

The World’s First Robot-Made Burger Is About to Hit the Bay Area

GOP lawmaker says evidence might have been tampered with in Flynn case


Notable Quotable

“Republicans should stop wasting their time on Immigration until after we elect more Senators and Congressmen/women in November. Dems are just playing games, have no intention of doing anything to solves this decades old problem. We can pass great legislation after the Red Wave!” — Tweet on Friday from President Trump regarding Republican efforts to pass an immigration reform bill without Democrat support.

Jon E. Dougherty is a political, foreign policy and national security analyst and reporter with nearly 30 years of experience in both fields. A U.S. Army veteran of Operation Enduring Freedom, he holds BA in Political Science from Ashford University and an MA in National Security Studies/Intelligence Analysis from American Military University.

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