Early Warning for 21 September – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 21 September

Good morning and welcome to Early Warning for Thursday, 21 September.  If you enjoy the Early Warning, then you’re going to love Strategic Intelligence, our intelligence summary covering strategic developments and the risk of war with Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran/Middle East.  Subscribe here.

Officials from the U.S. Marine Corps are warning that advancing technology employed by near-peer adversaries poses the most significant threat to U.S. national security.  “I believe we have about a 10-year window to get this right,” said the chief of intelligence at Marine Corps Headquarters in Quantico, Va.  The number one player is China.  “They are leveraging technology in the information space at a rate and at a scale that we are presently unable to match. Chinese dominance in that arena is coming if we don’t intervene…How are we going to play the long game?” [source]

The Russian military test-launched an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) yesterday, their newest in an effort to upgrade their existing nuclear arsenal and delivery systems. One U.S. Air Force official said, “The Russians are modernizing their entire nuclear force and their entire nuclear force will be modernized before we start modernizing our force.” We have to be careful whenever U.S. military leaders say they need more money or that a potential adversary is outpacing us, threatening national security.  In most cases, they just want more money; however, there’s growing reason to believe that current warnings are more ominous than bluster.  The U.S. military is has truly fallen into a condition of disrepair.  [source]

As we have warned for over a year, China risks financial problems of its own due to its high debt. The S&P credit agency just downgraded China from A+ to AA-.  Earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that China’s debt had a “dangerous trajectory” and called for changes in China’s debt-fueled growth strategy.  I believe China will eventually have it’s own version of America’s financial 2008 meltdown, for reasons I’ve explained in previous intelligence summaries. That’s going to have profound and global impact. [source]


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Mike Shelby is a former military intelligence NCO and contract intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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