Early Warning for 21 September 2018 – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 21 September 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Friday, 21 September 2018. (All times Central.)


White House

The President is scheduled to hold a Make America Great Again rally in Missouri before flying to Trump National in New Jersey for the weekend.

Early Warning: Next week, President Trump is scheduled to meet with South Korean President Moon Jae-in, in addition to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Theresa May, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The President is also scheduled to speak at a meeting of the United Nations.


State Department

Secretary Pompeo: Nothing significant to report.


Defense Department

Defense Secretary Mattis: Nothing significant to report. Reporting from last month indicated that he’d be making trips to Europe and the Indo-Pacific this month.


There has been no significant change in deployments of U.S. carrier strike groups. Conflict requiring an aircraft carrier/carrier strike group not appear imminent.

The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) was last reported as being in port of San Diego.

The Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) was last reported as being in port at Norfolk.

The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported as having returned to port in Bremerton, WA.

The Harry Truman (CVN-75) was last reported as being in the north Atlantic.

The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) was last reported as having participated in Valiant Shield 2018 around the Marianas Islands Range.

The George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) was last reported in the western Atlantic after leaving port at Norfolk to evade Hurricane Florence.



Significant House Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

* Only events pertinent to national security are listed.



According to new unemployment numbers, the jobless rate hit the lowest level since 1969 as the consumer comfort index hits the highest level since 2000 and both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 make new highs.

In the past 10 years, student loan debt has more than doubled from $627 billion (2008) to $1.5 trillion (2018).



HurricaneWatch: There are a few low-pressure disturbances in the Atlantic, but there’s nothing significant to report at this time.


REMINDER: This hurricane watch section will remain in this report through the end of the season. I check the latest from the National Hurricane Center each morning and will provide details as necessary.




“Unfortunately, many areas experiencing severe to exceptional drought saw little to no rainfall, with the dryness often accompanied by warmer-than-normal temperatures for this time of year, exacerbating conditions. Notably, eastern Oregon, northern Utah, and western Colorado all saw expansion of extreme or exceptional drought.” [source] (This map is updated every Thursday.)


For some context, this map shows the change in conditions as compared to this time last year.


What I’m Looking at this Morning

Army converting more units to armor, Stryker brigades

2018 DOD Cyber Strategy

Netanyahu taunts the Iranians

China’s interference in U.S. politics is just beginning


Notable Quotable

“We will identify, counter, disrupt, degrade, and deter behavior in cyberspace that is destablilizing and contrary to national interests… we are going to do a lot of things offensively and I think our adversaries need to know that.”- National Security Advisor John Bolton speaking on the Defense Department’s new strategy

Mike Shelby is a former military intelligence NCO and contract intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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