Early Warning for 21 June 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for 21 June 2018. (All times Eastern.)

Advanced Early Warning: Tensions are increasing around the country over President Trump’s zero-tolerance border policy in which all adults caught crossing illegally into the country are referred for criminal prosecution. The policies are being hyped by the media and have led to one arrest over a death threat to a Republican congressman and a manhunt for another suspect who threatened POTUS Trump in a social media post. We’ll have more on this in tomorrow’s National Intelligence Bulletin.

ALSO: A 20-something police officer sworn in with the East Pittsburgh police department just hours earlier has shot and killed an unarmed 17-year-old black male high school student. Details are still coming in but there are conflicting reports regarding whether the suspect who was killed, Antwon Rose, was involved in an earlier criminal action involving a shooting. Rose was shot as he fled the scene of a traffic stop. The officer reportedly stopped the vehicle because it matched one reported to have been involved in the earlier criminal action. Protests have already begun in Pittsburgh.


White House

The president will hold a Cabinet meeting at the White House beginning at 11:45 a.m., following by a working lunch with governors and two meetings — the first with Secretary of State Pompeo and the second with Defense Secretary Mattis.


State Department

Secretary Pompeo meets with Portuguese Foreign Minister Augusto Santos Silva before joining the president’s Cabinet meeting at the White House. Later, he will meet with Filipino Foreign Affairs Secretary Alan Peter Cayetano, then with POTUS at 3:00 p.m.

Deputy Secretary John Sullivan has various meetings scheduled at the State Department.


Defense Department

SECDEF Mattis will attend the Cabinet meeting and then meet with the president later in the afternoon. Otherwise, neither Mattis, Deputy Secretary of Defense Patrick M. Shanahan, or Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Marine Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr. have any public meetings on their schedule

Aircraft carrier movement/activities:

Carl Vinson (CVN-70) is participating in the RIMPAC 2018 exercises in the Pacific Ocean.

Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) is operating in the Mediterranean Sea.

Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) is operating in the Philippine Sea.

The remaining U.S. carriers are in their home ports. A conflict requiring a Carrier Strike Group does not appear imminent.


Congress

House: There are several committee and subcommittee meetings scheduled throughout the day and we will generate reports on those hearings if they are significant. The House is scheduled to vote on a pair of immigration bills that would address, among other things, amnesty for Deferred Action on Childhood Arrivals (DACA) policy and the administration’s child separation actions. Neither is expected to pass.

Senate: The upper chamber also has a full day of committee and subcommittee hearings scheduled. Several votes were held Wednesday in consideration of H.R.5895, Energy and Water, Legislative Branch, and Military Construction and Veterans Affairs Appropriations Act, 2019. More are scheduled for today.


Economy

(1) Jobless claims fell again marking the fourth consecutive week of declines. Claims fell by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week that ended June 16. Analysts note that the labor market is tightening up which usually leads to higher wages as employers compete for quality workers. Wage growth is happening but it’s slower than many expected. Companies will have to pick up the pace and offer more to keep workers from leaving for other better-paying positions.

(2) Almost two-thirds of corporate chief financial officers surveyed believe the Trump administration’s trade tariffs will hurt their companies over the next six months. The results come as the White House is escalating its “trade war” against China. Of CFOs surveyed, 20 percent indicated the impact would be “very negative.” Of the 16 Dow Jones Industrial Average declines of 1 percent or more this year, seven have been related to negative trade news. In sum, $700 billion has been lost. As of this morning, the Dow is down again, marking the eighth straight day of decline (thus far).


Yesterday’s Significant Reporting

Trump signs order that he says will keep migrant families together

Defense Chiefs: U.S. Cannot Win Global Cyber Wars

Severe obesity rates surging in rural America


Notable Quotable

“Those who want to come to this country can and should apply legally. We have the most generous immigration laws in the world — but they should be enforced. At the Department of Justice, that is what we intend to do, and we ask Congress to be our partners in this effort.” — Attorney General Jeff Sessions, writing in USA Today explaining the administration’s border law enforcement policies.

Jon E. Dougherty is a political, foreign policy and national security analyst and reporter with nearly 30 years of experience in both fields. A U.S. Army veteran of Operation Enduring Freedom, he holds BA in Political Science from Ashford University and an MA in National Security Studies/Intelligence Analysis from American Military University.

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