Early Warning for 20 November 2018 – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 20 November 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Tuesday, 20 November 2018.

(ADMIN NOTE: Please not that Early Warning will not be published on Thursday or Friday of this week. The Strategic Intelligence Summary and National Intelligence Bulletin will both be published on Friday.

Additionally, I apologize for not getting this report out yesterday and sooner this morning. I’m under the weather and looking forward to recuperating over Thanksgiving. I hope you have a great Thanksgiving holiday. Early Warning will be back in production on Monday morning, 26 November.)


White House

The President: Nothing significant to report.


State Department

Secretary Pompeo is scheduled to meet with the Turkish foreign minister.


Defense Department

Defense Secretary Mattis: Nothing significant to report.


These are the last publicly reported locations of these ships. Conflict requiring an aircraft carrier/carrier strike group does not appear imminent.

The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) was last reported as taking part in a sustainment exercise off the coast of southern California.

The Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) was last reported as being in port at Norfolk, but will be transitioning to a new home port in San Diego.

* The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported as being in the Philippine Sea.

* The Harry Truman (CVN-75) was last reported as being in the Mediterranean.

* The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) was last reported as being in the South China Sea.

The George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) was last reported as having returned to port in Norfolk.

* Indicates significant changes to last reported location or other amplifying information.



Significant House Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

* Only events pertinent to national security are listed. Significant reporting will appear in this week’s Strategic and National Intelligence reports.



Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest and most successful hedge fund, was on Bloomberg over the weekend warning about what might become a lost decade. “I think we’re in an environment where we’re going to have low returns for a very, very long time.” Dalio also likened the current economic cycle to the late 1930s because of political polarity and a resurgence of populism. “The political polarity causes populism around the world, in other words a strong individual to come in and get control of that situation while they’re having that type of polarity.” He also talked about the “elements of conflict” shaping up with China, where he mentioned that in 12 out of the past 16 times a resurgent power competed with a status quo power, the two powers went to war. Dalio wouldn’t go so far as to say that the U.S. and China would get into a shooting war, but did say that the risk was clearly there. “I would say that… to not consider it as a possibility and not be worried about it — internal conflict and external conflict — would be dangerous.”



HurricaneWatch: The National Hurricane Center reports no cyclonic activity in the Atlantic Ocean. About 10 days remain in “hurricane season,” which ends on 30 November. [source]



What I’m Looking at this Morning

China paying for most of Trump’s trade war

Navy lost 1,891 days of attack submarine operations waiting on repairs

U.S. military targets Chinese, Russian influence in Latin America

The new way the Army will conduct information operations


Notable Quotable

“Democrats have a strong case to make on the economy and can persuade constituents they are on the side of working and middle-class people.” – Navigator strategy document for Democrats [source]

Mike Shelby is a former military intelligence NCO and contract intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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