Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for 20 June 2018. (All times Eastern.)
Advanced Early Warning: David Spika, president of GuideStone Capital Management, says a “day of reckoning” is coming for the stock market, but it’s not due to the looming ‘trade war’ between the U.S. and China. He sees central bank tightening as the bigger threat. Nine years of stimulus from the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world was good for stocks, but tightening may now have negative effects.
ALSO: A state Senate panel in California is moving to restrict the use of force by police, a measure that is staunchly opposed by officers. Assembly Bill 931would increase the state standard for lethal use of force from “reasonable” to “necessary.” The bill was introduced after police in Sacramento shot and killed a young black man who was only holding a cell phone. We’ll analyze this in greater detail in this week’s National Intelligence Bulletin.
White House
After his intelligence brief, POTUS Trump will meet with members of Congress in the Cabinet Room. He’ll have lunch with Secretary of State Pompeo at 12:30 p.m., then depart for Duluth, Minn., at 2:00 p.m. where he will participate in a discussion on protecting American workers. He’ll attend a political rally at 6:30 p.m., then depart at 8:00 p.m. for the White House.
State Department
Secretary Pompeo will have lunch with President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, at the White House at 12:30 p.m. He will meet with German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen at the State Department at 4:00 p.m.
Acting Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Susan Thornton will meet with the New Zealand Secretary of Foreign Affairs Brook Barrington at 3:30 p.m.
At 4:30 p.m., Deputy Secretary John Sullivan will meet with the New Zealand Secretary of Foreign Affairs Brook Barrington at the State Department.
Defense Department
SECDEF James Mattis welcomes German Defense Minister von der Leyen at 2:00 p.m.
Deputy Secretary of Defense Patrick M. Shanahan and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Marine Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr. have no public or media events on their schedules.
Army Lt. Gen. Richard J. Cripwell, United Kingdom, deputy commander, Operation Resolute Support, will brief the media by video at 11:00 a.m. in the Pentagon Briefing Room.
The Department of Defense announced the death of a U.S. Navy sailor who was deployed in support of Special Operations Command Forward – East Africa for U.S. Africa Command. Petty Officer 1st Class Matthew I. Holzemer, of Tennessee, died June 17 at Camp Lemonnier, Djibouti, as a result of a non-combat related incident.
Aircraft carrier movement/activities:
Carl Vinson (CVN-70) is participating in the RIMPAC 2018 exercises in the Pacific Ocean.
Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) is operating in the Mediterranean Sea.
Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) is operating in the Philippine Sea.
The remaining U.S. carriers are in their home ports. A conflict requiring a Carrier Strike Group does not appear imminent.
Congress
House schedule:
| 10:00 am | The Benefits of Tax Reform on the Energy Sector and Consumers Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy |
| 10:00 am | Hearing entitled “Empowering a Pro-Growth Economy by Cutting Taxes and Regulatory Red Tape” Committee on Financial Services Full Committee |
| 10:00 am | U.S. Policy Toward Afghanistan Committee on Foreign Affairs |
| 10:00 am | “Occupational Licensing: Reducing Barriers to Economic Mobility and Growth” Committee on Education and the Workforce Subcommittee on Higher Education and Workforce Development |
| 10:00 am | Full Committee Markup – FY 2019 State and Foreign Operations Appropriations Bill and Revised Report on the Suballocation of Budget Allocations for FY 2019 Committee on Appropriations Multiple Subcommittees |
| 10:15 am | Full Committee Markup Committee on Natural Resources Full Committee |
| 11:00 am | Communities That Think Small and Win Big Committee on Small Business |
| 12:30 pm | Concurrent Resolution on the Budget for Fiscal Year 2019 Committee On The Budget |
| 1:00 pm | Examination of the GAO Audit Series of HHS Cybersecurity Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations |
| 2:00 pm | The Trump-Kim Summit: Outcomes and Oversight Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific |
| 2:00 pm | Hearing entitled “Illicit Use of Virtual Currency and the Law Enforcement Response” Committee on Financial Services Terrorism and Illicit Finance |
| 2:00 pm | Holding Cuban Leaders Accountable Committee on Oversight and Government Reform Subcommittee on National Security |
| 2:30 pm | Human Rights Concerns in Sri Lanka Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations |
| 3:30 pm | Military Health System Reform: Pain Management Opioids Prescription Management and Reporting Transparency Committee on Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel |
Senate:
- 9:00 AM — SD-215
- 10:00 AM — SD-406
- 10:00 AM — SD-342
- 10:00 AM — SD-226
- 10:00 AM — SH-216
- 10:15 AM — SD-419
- 10:30 AM — SR-253
- 10:30 AM — SR-301
- 2:30 PM — SD-628
- 2:30 PM — SD-538
Economy
(1) Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says there is a “strong case” to continue raising interest rates. He is premising his comments on strong jobs and economic growth. His remarks come a week after the Federal Open Market Committee voted to raise rates a quarter-of-a-percent, which would be the sixth rate increase since December 2015. Rate increases not only make borrowing more expensive for consumers, it costs the federal government more to service its $20-plus trillion dollar debt.
(2) To Powell’s observations about the U.S. economy, sales of existing homes fell 0.4 percent in May after analysts forecast a 1.5-percent increase. That said, a shortage of properties in high-demand markets around the country pushed the price of homes upward. Existing home sales comprise about 90 percent of U.S. home sales; overall year-to-year sales of existing homes are down 3 percent.
Weather
There is no tropical storm activity expected to threaten the continental U.S. or any U.S. territories over the next 48 hours.
Trump doubles down on border law enforcement
FBI agent Peter Strzok ‘escorted’ from FBI building, lawyer confirms
Ex-CIA engineer charged with massive leak to WikiLeaks
Notable Quotable
“He’s focused on border security. And like all presidents, he wants it done now. But we’re part of the legislative process. It’s slower and deliberate,” — Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), responding to questions about President Trump’s threat to shut down the government in September if he doesn’t get the full $25 billion in funding for his proposed border wall.
