Early Warning for 17 July 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for 17 July 2018. (All times Eastern.)

White House

The President is scheduled to meet with members of Congress in a closed-door session this afternoon. There are no other public events today.

State Department

Secretary of State Pompeo is scheduled to meet with Vice President Pence today.

Assistant Secretary Singh is traveling this week to Greece, Turkey, and Kazakhstan to discuss trade and economic matters.

Defense Department

There are no reported significant events or meetings with DOD officials today.

The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) was last reported in the Hawaii Area of Operations. The Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) is reportedly in the East Atlantic, and the Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) is east of Okinawa, Japan. Conflict requiring a Carrier Strike Group does not appear imminent.


Significant House Activity:

  • The House Subcommittee on National Security is holding a hearing today to discuss U.S.-Israeli relations.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe is holding a hearing on the Russian occupation on the Republic of Georgia and the erosion of the international order.
  • The Intelligence Committee is holding a closed-door session.


This week’s biggest news is that the yield curve on the 10-year Treasury is “flattening”. And by flattening, I mean it continues a 5-week decline. A pretty big shift is happening right now because the 10-year yield is getting closer to dropping below the 2-year yield, which is often an early warning indicator of financial and economic instability. Essentially, investors are saying that the next two years are more unpredictable than what they foresee in the next 10 years. We’re looking at the yield curve of the 2-year Treasury rate, which is at 2.59 percent. The 10-year Treasury rate is at 2.86 percent, which is down from 3.1 percent since mid-May. That’s making headlines.


The National Hurricane Center reports that tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Drought conditions persist across much of the Southwest.

Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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