Early Warning for 16 January 2019

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Wednesday, 16 January 2019.


Early Warning: Agitators on both the Alt-Right and Alt-Left are creating fervor over the “Rock Stone Mountain II” rally set to take place on 02 FEB 2019 just outside Atlanta at Stone Mountain, Georgia.

Antifascist groups in multiple cities have called for mobilization against the rally. Facebook comments from the Alt-Right-affiliated individuals are being seized upon as proof of violent intent (e.g. “looks like a good place for a .308″). Atlanta-based antifascists have also seized the opportunity to doxx (publish personal details online) the organizers of the event and send out hundreds of mailers and fliers.

Alt-Right groups intend to move forward with the rally despite being denied a permit for the event due to safety concerns. Alt-Right groups involved in the rally have indicated that they are aware of the growing protest movement against them, resulting in memes that read “Aiming for Antifa on February 2nd”, featuring soldiers in Confederate uniforms preparing and firing weapons.

It’s possible that we’ll see effects beyond Georgia as protests and counter-protests take place in many cities across the nation. We’re following this event and additional information will be posted in Alt-Observer reporting.


White House

The President is scheduled to meet with the Problem Solvers Caucus and have lunch with the Secretary of State. (AC: The Problem Solvers Caucus is a bi-partisan group of House members.)

Shutdown: 26 days. The federal government is making some changes to how it deals with the shutdown. After fears that the absence of air traffic controllers affected the safety of air travel, the Federal Aviation Administration is bringing back thousands of furloughed inspectors. The Food and Drug Administration recalled employees to continue food facility inspections. A total of nearly 50,000 federal employees are being recalled to work without pay. Additionally, the White House Council of Economic Advisors doubled their estimate of the cost of the shutdown, now saying that every week costs 0.13 percent of GDP growth. Four weeks in, we could be looking at a drop of half a percentage point. Some analysts are warning that the shutdown will eventually lead to economic contraction. That’s putting pressure on President Trump to solve the wall problem, deal or no deal.

Census: A federal judge struck down the Commerce Department’s plan to ask the citizenship question in the upcoming 2020 census. The judge found that Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross violated federal law about the reasoning for the question. Somehow that invalidates the entire provision of “Are you a U.S. citizen?” The Trump administration is expected to appeal.


State Department

Secretary Pompeo has no publicly scheduled events.


Defense Department

Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan meets with the Japanese Minister of Defense.


These are the last publicly reported locations of these ships. Conflict requiring an aircraft carrier/carrier strike group does not appear imminent.

The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) was last reported on a three month deployment to the Western Pacific.

The Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) was last reported as having returned to Norfolk.

The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported as in the Persian Gulf.

The Harry Truman (CVN-75) was last reported as having returned to Norfolk.

The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) was last reported as having returned to home port in Yokosuka, Japan.

The George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) was last reported as having returned to Norfolk.


Bold indicates significant changes to last reported location or other amplifying information.



Significant House Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • The Judiciary Committee continues to hold confirmation hearings on Robert Barr for Attorney General.

* Only events pertinent to national security are listed. Significant reporting will appear in this week’s Strategic and National Intelligence reports



For a change of news, the Chief Investment Officer of Oppenheimer Funds was on CNBC on Monday and said that he doesn’t foresee a recession for the next five years. “There’s no recession imminent. I think five more years is what we’re talking about.”


What I’m Looking at this Morning

DIA: China’s military confidence rising

‘At any cost’: China warns U.S. Navy over Taiwan

Venezuela lawmakers back “legitimate” challenger to Maduro


Notable Quotable

“Does this still work? Can an empire like ours with military presence in over 170 countries around the globe, with trading relationships … and security agreements in every continent, can it still be managed by the same principles that were set down 230-plus years ago?” – Beto O’Rourke

Analyst Comment: This quote is part of an alarming trend of prominent Democrats tiptoeing around fundamentally transforming the structure of government. From abolishing the Senate to granting Washington D.C. statehood, to asking whether America ‘still works’ by the same principles outlined the Founders, these are proposals commented on by Elizabeth Warren, Eric Holder, and now Beto O’Rourke in the past week alone. Analysis will appear in this week’s National Intelligence Bulletin.

Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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