Early Warning for 16 August 2018 – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 16 August 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Thursday, 16 August 2018. (All times Eastern.)

ADMIN NOTE: We’ve reprised the Early Warning for a while now based on subscriber feedback. I’d like to know your thoughts. How are we doing? What would you like to see in this morning email each day?


White House

The President is scheduled to hold a Cabinet meeting then has lunch with Vice President Pence. Later in the day, he’s scheduled to meet with DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen.


State Department

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is scheduled to meet with the president at today’s Cabinet meeting.

Of note: The Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security is on travel from 12-26 August to Indonesia, Vietnam, and Australia. In Indonesia, U.S. officials will meet to discuss expanding defense trade and regional security issues. All three meetings are likely central to the U.S. Indo-Pacific security strategy to prevent China’s dominance of the entire region.


Defense Department

Defense Secretary Mattis and other senior Defense officials have no publicly scheduled events.

SECDEF is scheduled to be in the Indo-Pacific in September and will then travel to Europe.

The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) was last reported as having returned to port in San Diego.

The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported back as participating in an exercise off the coast of southern California.

The Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) was last reported in port at Norfolk.

The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) was last reported has having departed port in Yokosuka, Japan.

The George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) was last reported as having returned to port in Norfolk.

Conflict requiring a Carrier Strike Group does not appear imminent.



Significant House Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

* Reporting will appear in the Strategic Intelligence Summary or National Intelligence Bulletin.



– The 10-year Treasury yield is still close to the 2-year Treasury rate. As of this morning, the 10-year sits at 2.87 percent; the 2-year is at 2.6 percent. Economists point to the correlation between a crossover of the two and a recession. When investors are more fearful of the next two years, driving up the 2-year rate, than the next 10 years, that’s when we start looking at recession territory. We’re not there yet, but the yield curve is flattening.



The National Hurricane Center reports that Sub-Tropical Storm Ernesto has formed in the Atlantic, but is headed east and is unlikely to make landfall in the United States. A second disturbance is being reported off the coast of South America.

REMINDER: This hurricane watch section will remain in this report through the end of the season. I check the latest from the National Hurricane Center each morning and will provide details as necessary.


Drought conditions persist across much of the Southwest. This map is updated every Thursday.



What I’m Looking at this Morning

Steve Bannon’s Trump @ War (Video Trailer)

Trump pulls Brennan’s security clearance

Poland wants permanent U.S. military presence


Notable Quotable

“The war room is up and running.”  – Steve Bannon on the future roll-out of his new political action committee, Citizens of the American Republic

Mike Shelby is a former military intelligence NCO and contract intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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