Early Warning for 14 March 2019 – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 14 March 2019

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Thursday, 14 March 2019.

ADMIN NOTE: You’ll notice some major changes to today’s Early Warning. I’m going to streamline this report by removing or condensing significant portions that either don’t change or provide no intelligence value. Trimming off a few sections will leave me with more time to get more intelligence value packed in. If you’re a daily reader, please let me know your thoughts on these changes.


Early Warning: Steve Bannon is headlining an appearance tonight at Cobo Center in Detroit, Michigan for the “We Build the Wall Town Hall” meeting. Organizers expect up to 2,000 attendees, plus hundreds of protestors. It will turn into a circus.

Also: Historian and Hoover fellow Victor Davis Hanson (full disclosure, he’s a personal hero of mine) has a new book coming out called The Case for Trump. Yesterday, Hanson said during an interview that while the 2020 election was still too early, he thinks Trump has a 55 percent chance of being re-elected… which is little more than a coin toss. Scary.

Also also: I continue to be fascinated with the campaign of Andrew Yang, the Silicon Valley venture capitalist running in the Democratic primary. First, he’s meming his way into reality as his Millennial backers push him on social media.

Even some on the Right are toying with the idea of supporting him, for two reasons. First, he needed 65,000 donors to make the Democratic debates. He made that earlier this week, maybe with the help of numerous $1 donations from younger right wing donors who wanted to see him on stage. And second, some on the Right see Yang’s universal basic income plan of $1,000 per month as accelerationist policy to collapse the United States — something they actually mention, probably tongue-in-cheek. Likely few right wingers are sincere in their support of Yang. The rest are in it for the lulz (45 and older: that means kicks…).

There’s a pretty good video of Yang speaking which illustrates his draw of younger people.

“First, [his friend Eric Weinsten] said that we never knew that capitalism was going to get eaten by its son, technology, which is where we are now. The second thing he said is that this economy is making liars of us all because you go around selling this growth model and you tell people… ‘Hey, join me and this growth model will be yours and the riches will be yours.’ But the growth model is breaking down right and left, and no one’s telling you this… So they’re making liars of these institutions.” [source]

Yang is polling at one percent, which is higher than much bigger names like Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-CA). While he stands an approximately zero percent chance of picking up the nomination, he’s bringing to light what he’s previously described as a tsunami of social and economic change as robotics, automation, and artificial intelligence increasingly replace U.S. workers.


Politics & Governance

Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke announced that he’s running for president, causing some to worry if his home state of Texas is in play to be turned blue. Last week, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi warned that Texas would be “ground-zero for us in the next election.” If Texas is turned blue and remains so, the GOP would almost certainly be locked out of future presidential races. As for Robert Francis, he warned: “The challenges that we face right now … They will either consume us, or they will afford us the greatest opportunity to unleash the genius of the United States of America.”

The Senate is expected to pass a resolution today that rejects President Trump’s national emergency declaration. “There’s a border crisis and we have to deal with it. But I still have my constitutional concern,” said Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN). Alexander is one of many Republican Senators who plan to vote against the declaration on issues of constitutionality, but also likely fearing the implications for future use of emergency declarations by Democrats. Trump said previously that he’s willing to veto any Congressional resolution against the emergency declaration, setting up potential misuse of future emergency declarations.

In a New York Times column, “woke” columnist Jamelle Bouie writes “The Trouble with Joe Biden,” in which Bouie points out Biden’s historic opposition to racially integrated busing in Delaware. In 1975, Biden said, “I do not buy the concept, popular in the ’60s, which said, ‘We have suppressed the black man for 300 years and the white man is now far ahead in the race for everything our society offers. In order to even the score, we must now give the black man a head start, or even hold the white man back, to even the race. I don’t buy that.” Bouie pointed out that the quote is problematic for Biden’s presidential run. Bouie continues: “Biden could lead Democrats to victory over Trump, but his political style might affirm the assumptions behind Trumpism. The outward signs of our political dysfunction would be gone, but the disease would still remain.”


Far Left Daily

Speaking about impeachment, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) said, “[T]here may be grounds for removal of office or there may be grounds for indictment after [Trump] leaves office that the Congress discovers.”

Weighing in on Joe Biden’s recent remarks that Vice President Mike Pence was a “decent guy,” for which he later apologized, Sen. Elizabeth Warren said, “Anyone who engages in the kind of homophobia and attacks on people who are different from himself is not an honorable person. That’s not what honorable people do.”

In response to President Trump’s budget proposal, Sen. Bernie Sanders asked Medicare officials during Senate testimony, “You obviously studied how many people would die as a result of a lack of access to health care. What kind of conclusion did you reach? How many thousands do you think will die because of massive cuts to Medicare and Medicaid?”



After mortgage rates fell from November highs (from 5.20 percent to 4.60 percent), mortgage applications are currently at multi-year highs for this time of year. Total housing construction also bounced back in January from month-over-month decreases in November and December.

According to a new Bankrate survey, one-fifth (21 percent) of working Americans likely have zero or near-zero savings. (Analyst Comment: This is obviously going to have consequences during the next economic recession. It could also increase voter turnout in favor of candidates who promise social programs directed at them.)

Regarding the still-pending U.S.-China trade deal, President Trump said that he’s in “no rush” to make a deal that didn’t meet his demands. China continues to block out U.S. competitors of major Chinese corporations and force technology transfers from U.S. corporations doing business in China. The U.S. remains the target of $300-600 billion in annual intellectual property theft via Chinese economic and industrial espionage. As long as the Chinese economy continues to turn downward, President Trump’s advantage grows. Just don’t expect major concessions from China. The Chinese Communist Party will lie, cheat, and steal, regardless of whatever deal they sign.


Strategic/Defense Situational Awareness

U.S. base in Poland gaining ground

U.S. wants 10-ship unmanned “ghost fleet”

Chief of Naval Operations warns of cyber attacks against flag officers

Navy remains under ‘cyber siege’ and is leaking secrets

U.S. prepared to strike back against cyber attacks

Army 4-star: Russian aggression on the rise in the Balkans


Notable Quotable

“The old America is dying. A new America is struggling to be born. Now is a time of monsters.” – Waleed Shahid, communications director for Justice Democrats (2018)

Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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