Early Warning for 14 June 2018

Good morning. Here is your early warning for 14 June 2018. (All times Eastern.)

Advanced Early Warning: Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s 15-month-long, highly anticipated report is due to be released in Washington, D.C., sometime today, and we assume that the release will be sooner rather than later. Previous reporting suggested that the 500-page document will be highly critical of former FBI Director James Comey over his handling of the Hillary Clinton email investigation, as well as former Attorney General Loretta Lynch for similar mistakes. It may also be critical of former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, whom Horowitz has reportedly referred to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for prosecution for allegedly lying to investigators.

ALSO: After his meeting earlier this week with Kim Jong-un, President Trump is getting some new respect in North Korean media, which of course is heavily controlled by…Kim and his security state. Trump has been referred to negatively in the North Korean press for months in reports that are replete with name-calling and insults. But now he’s being referred to as “the president of the United States of America,” or “President Donald J. Trump,” and even “supreme leader.” That’s quite a change from “dotard.”


White House

There are no publicly scheduled events for the president today.


State Department

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is on travel to Seoul, Republic of Korea; and Beijing, China, June 14. In order, he will meet with South Korean, Japanese, and Chinese counterparts throughout the day.

At 11:00 a.m., Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan will meet with China National People’s Congress Vice Chairman Wang Chen at the State Department. At 2:00 p.m. he will attend the OPIC Board of Directors Meeting at OPIC.


Department of Defense

Secretary of Defense James N. Mattis is traveling. Deputy Secretary of Defense Patrick M. Shanahan provides remarks at 11:30 a.m. EDT at the U.S. Army birthday celebration in the Pentagon Center Courtyard.  Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr. has no public or media events on his schedule.

Vice Adm. Dean Peters, commander, Naval Air Systems Command, Vice Adm. Thomas Moore, commander, Naval Sea Systems Command, Air Force Lt. Gen. Lee Levy, commander, Air Force Sustainment Center and Material Command, provide testimony on depot policy and infrastructure concerns at 10 a.m. EDT to the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness.

Aircraft carrier movement/activities:

Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) moved out of the Adriatic Sea and is now in the Mediterranean Sea.

Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) is operating in the Western Pacific and is now operating off the coast of Guam.

George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) is sailing off the coast of Virginia.

The Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) has returned to port in Norfolk, Va.

A conflict requiring a Carrier Strike Group does not appear imminent.


Congress

House:

Senate:

  • 9:30 AM —  SD-226
Business meeting to consider S.2837, to improve the systems for identifying the diversion of controlled substances, S.974, to promote competition in the market for drugs and biological products by facilitating the timely entry of lower-cost generic and biosimilar versions of those drugs and biological products, S.2245, to include New Zealand in the list of foreign states whose nationals are eligible for admission into the United States as E-1 and E-2 nonimmigrants if United States nationals are treated similarly by the Government of New Zealand, and the nominations of Britt Cagle Grant, of Georgia, to be United States Circuit Judge for the Eleventh Circuit, Allen Cothrel Winsor, to be United States District Judge for the Northern District of Florida, Patrick R. Wyrick, to be United States District Judge for the Western District of Oklahoma, Edward W. Felten, of New Jersey, and Jane Nitze, of the District of Columbia, both to be a Member of the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board, and Susan Llewellyn Pamerleau, to be United States Marshal for the Western District of Texas, Gadyaces S. Serralta, to be United States Marshal for the Southern District of Florida, R. Don Ladner, Jr., to be United States Marshal for the Northern District of Florida, and Charles L. Goodwin, to be United States Marshal for the District of Hawaii, all of the Department of Justice.
  • 10:00 AM —  SD-538
Hearings to examine an update from the Comptroller of the Currency.
  • 10:00 AM —  SD-419
Hearings to examine the nominations of Harry B. Harris, Jr., of Florida, to be Ambassador to the Republic of Korea, Tibor Peter Nagy, Jr., of Texas, to be an Assistant Secretary (African Affairs), and David Schenker, of New Jersey, to be an Assistant Secretary (Near Eastern Affairs), all of the Department of State.
  • 11:00 AM —  SD-106
Business meeting to markup an original bill making appropriations for the Department of the Interior, Environmental Protection Agency, and related agencies for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2019, an original bill making appropriations for the Department of Commerce, Department of Justice, science, and related agencies for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2019, and an original bill making appropriations for the legislative branch for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2019.
  • 2:00 PM —  SH-219
To receive a closed briefing regarding certain intelligence matters.

Economy

(1) Stocks are beating gold by a wide margin and economists expect that trend to continue. Right now, the margin between gold and stocks is the widest its been in 13 years. The ratio of the S&P 500 to gold has touched its highest level since mid-2005, according to an analysis of the popular S&P 500-tracking ETF (SPY) and a gold-tracking ETF (GLD) from Pension Partners. If you recall from a previous Early Warning, some economists are predicting a meteoric rise in the S&P 500 in the coming months. Let me put this in a big-picture context; the direction for gold is ultimately down,” said Gina Sanchez, CEO of Chantico Global.

(2) Due to the red-hot economy, “main street businesses” are having a much harder time finding workers. For the first time in years, there are more jobs than there are potential employees to fill them. Some employers are having to resort to extreme measures, such as turning to jails, in order to find enough people — and still, they are having difficulty. In May, one-third of small-business owners reported job openings they could not fill, and 12 percent reported using temporary workers. One of the biggest complaints from employers is finding quality workers. In fact, that’s been the No. 1 problem now for five months.


Weather

There is a “disturbance” over the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico that is steadily moving north but there is a less-than-40 percent chance it will develop into a major storm or hurricane at this time.


Yesterday’s Significant Reporting

Former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen likely to cooperate as his attorneys leave case, sources say

Only 100 nuclear bombs needed to cause catastrophe around the world

113 Politicians Have Been Killed Ahead Of Mexico’s Election. There Are Still Two Weeks To Go.


Notable Quotable

“He’s been way too quiet. There are a lot of people who think he’s played too little a role or almost no role in endorsing or fundraising and he’s done jack shit in getting people to donate to the party.” — A longtime Obama bundler complaining about the former president’s lack of involvement in Democratic Party politics after leaving the White House.

Jon E. Dougherty is a political, foreign policy and national security analyst and reporter with nearly 30 years of experience in both fields. A U.S. Army veteran of Operation Enduring Freedom, he holds BA in Political Science from Ashford University and an MA in National Security Studies/Intelligence Analysis from American Military University.

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