Early Warning for 14 August 2018 – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 14 August 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Tuesday, 14 August 2018. (All times Eastern.)


White House

The President is scheduled to receive his intelligence briefing and then have lunch with Secretary Pompeo.


State Department

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is scheduled to meet with President Trump at the White House today.

Of note: The Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security is on travel from 12-26 August to Indonesia, Vietnam, and Australia. In Indonesia, U.S. officials will meet to discuss expanding defense trade and regional security issues. All three meetings are likely central to the U.S. Indo-Pacific security strategy to prevent China’s dominance of the entire region.


Defense Department

Defense Secretary Mattis and senior Defense officials have no publicly scheduled events today.

The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) was last reported as having returned to port in San Diego.

The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported back as participating in an exercise off the coast of southern California.

The Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) was last reported in port at Norfolk.

The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) was last reported has having departed port in Yokosuka, Japan.

The George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) was last reported as having returned to port in Norfolk.

Conflict requiring a Carrier Strike Group does not appear imminent.



Significant House Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

* Reporting will appear in the Strategic Intelligence Summary or National Intelligence Bulletin.



– The U.S. labor force is getting older. The graph below shows that there will be fewer 16-24 year olds in the workforce through 2026, while the 55-64 and 65-74 age demos will be growing. This is one trend behind the reports that Social Security won’t be able to meet its full obligations by 2034. Based on projected tax revenue, Social Security will pay out only 77 percent of its obligations unless a solution is found. [source]



The National Hurricane Center reports a low-pressure disturbance several hundred miles off the coast of Newfoundland, and currently assesses a 40 percent chance of developing into a cyclone.

Drought conditions persist across much of the Southwest.



What I’m Looking at this Morning

China flexes muscles with three military drills

Trump signs NDAA that targets China

Gallup: Dems have overall higher rating of socialism than capitalism


Notable Quotable

“There’s more than one way to lose sovereignty in this world. It’s not just by bayonets. It can also be by countries that come in bearing gifts and large loans…piling massive debt on countries knowing they know will not be able to repay it.” – Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis on China’s financial strategy to gain a foothold in South America (FO’s insight and analysis will appear in Thursday’s Strategic Intelligence Summary)


Mike Shelby is a former military intelligence NCO and contract intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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