Early Warning for 13 November – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 13 November

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Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Monday, 13 November.

A former Air Force officer and deputy commander of U.S. Forces in Korea wrote a letter to Democrat members of Congress recently, outlining his concerns about a war with North Korea. Here are some highlights:

  • The 28,500 US Armed Forces personnel in South Korea are vastly outnumbered by North Korean forces, as well as ROK forces that will conduct the overwhelming majority of the fighting.
  • US reinforcements will take days to months to arrive in theater.. When they do arrive, they may well find their bases subject to attack by conventional or chemical weapons, which will further delay their entry into the war.
  • During that time an enormous casualty and evacuee crisis will develop and include over a hundred thousand non-­combatant Americans, many of who will turn to US forces to get them off the peninsula.
  • North Korean Special Forces, among the largest in the world, will create a second front in [South Korea].

A full North Korea Situation Report will appear in this week’s Strategic Intelligence.


Over the weekend, President Trump said that he believes Russian president Vladimir Putin when Putin says Russia did not meddle in the 2016 U.S. elections. Political pundits blew up, once again accusing the president of taking sides against the consensus of the 17 U.S. intelligence agencies. The consensus is a lie, there is no such consensus among the 17 intelligence agencies, and the so-called election meddling is not one event, but a string of events. These events likely include insider leaks, however, there is legitimate reason to believe that Russia did interfere to shape U.S. public opinion. The United States and European nations are involved in doing the same to Russia; it is inconceivable that Russia — long involved in shaping foreign elections in Europe — would not respond in kind to also target back. I’ll be providing examples of this shaping and dispelling some myths on today’s show.


Join me on Forward Observer Radio today at 2pm Central as we cover this update on North Korea, and also address the president’s comments about Putin made over the weekend. You can listen live on Spreaker or catch the podcast edition on iTunes.

Recent Episodes:


Looking for the fair and accurate reporting? Each week, the analysts at Forward Observer produce two intelligence newsletters. Strategic Intelligence focuses on the risk of war, systems disruption, and other strategic threats affecting the United States. And Low Intensity Conflict is a weekly look at the development of domestic conflict, revolutionary political movements, tribal violence, and other factors that disrupt our “civil” society.

Mike Shelby is a former military intelligence NCO and contract intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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