Early Warning for 13 February 2019

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Wednesday, 13 February 2019.


White House

The President is scheduled to meet with the president of Colombia, and then deliver remarks at the Major County Sheriffs and Major Cities Chiefs Association Joint Conference.

2: The number of days remaining for Democrats and Republicans to make a government funding deal. The tentative deal reached over the weekend still needs to be passed by the House and Senate, and then signed by President Trump, who says he’s “not happy” about the compromise. New reporting this morning says that the “tentative deal” may have hit a few snags, which are now being ironed out. If the deal goes through, one way forward is that President Trump has the agreed-upon 55 miles of new fencing built, and then issues a national emergency declaration to build the rest of the 1,000 miles he wants.

House Investigations: After Democrats laid out a roadmap yesterday, the House Intelligence Committee is taking the lead on investigations into President Trump and his allies. The House Financial Services Committee and House Foreign Affairs subcommittee on Russia will be joining. Perhaps doubting the impact of the Mueller report, they’ll be going after the Trump Tower Moscow deal in search of wrong-doing.


State Department

Secretary Pompeo is on travel this week to Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Belgium, and Iceland. Today Secretary Pompeo will be in Poland to meet with Vice President Pence, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and others to discuss a plan to counter Iranian influence.


Defense Department

Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan has no publicly scheduled events.


These are the last publicly reported locations of deployed carrier groups. Conflict requiring an aircraft carrier/carrier strike group does not appear imminent.

The Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) is off the coast of Virginia for pre-deployment training. The Lincoln will rejoin the Indo-Pacific Command once it re-bases to San Diego, CA.

The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported as port in Thailand.

The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) is forward deployed to Yokosuka, Japan.



Significant House Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

* Only events pertinent to national security are listed. Significant reporting will appear in this week’s Strategic and National Intelligence reports



Job openings hit new highs this week in construction, hospitality and restaurants, entertainment and recreation, and healthcare. The South has the biggest regional gains in new job openings.

Even has companies are still hiring and wage growth is rising, mortgage debt is still near 2007/08 levels ($9 trillion) and total household debt ($13 trillion) is above 2007/08 levels.


Far Left Daily

“You can feel it now. In Congress, it has started to shift [to the Far Left]. It has started to shift. We’re not there yet. We’re not all the way there, but it has started to shift.” – Sen. Elizabeth Warren

“[McConnell is] trying to bully the party, and he’s banking on people not being courageous. I think people should call his bluff.” – Rep. Ocasio-Cortez on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s forcing a Senate vote on the Green New Deal

“The [Congressional Black Caucus] has for some time now become extremely nosey as it relates to the staff that members who seek higher office bring aboard, because if they can’t get that right we have very little hope that they’ll do anything else right.” – Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-MD)

“Anytime [Democrats] reject the white boy wunderkids who got us into this mess — the better. Campaigns woke up from 2016, saw the level of influence voters of color had over 2018 and are taking that seriously with their first big decision as a presidential candidate: by hiring diverse senior level staff.” – Jess Morales Rocketto, former Hillary Clinton staffer


What I’m Looking at this Morning

Ambassador: U.S. to deploy additional troops to Poland

Future U.S. patrols in South China Sea will include partners and allies


Notable Quotable

“Little to no verifiable change has occurred in North Korea’s military capabilities.” – Gen. Robert Abrams, U.S. Forces Korea

Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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