Early Warning for 13 December 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Thursday, 13 December 2018.

 

White House

The President is scheduled to meet with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, then meets with governors-elect.


 

State Department

Secretary Pompeo is scheduled to meet with President Trump at the White House.


 

Defense Department

Defense Secretary Mattis: Nothing significant to report

 

These are the last publicly reported locations of these ships. Conflict requiring an aircraft carrier/carrier strike group does not appear imminent.

The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) was last reported as conducting carrier qualifications off the coast of California.

The Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) was last reported as being in the west Atlantic.

The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported as being in the north Arabian Sea.

The Harry Truman (CVN-75) was last reported as returned to home port, but currently in the Atlantic Ocean.

The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) was last reported as having returned to home port in Yokosuka, Japan.

The George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) was last reported as conducting carrier qualifications off the coast of Florida.

 

Bold indicates significant changes to last reported location or other amplifying information.


 

Congress

Significant House Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

* Only events pertinent to national security are listed. Significant reporting will appear in this week’s Strategic and National Intelligence reports.


 

Economy/Finance

According to a Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook survey, nearly half of American chief financial officers (CFO) believe that a recession will begin in 2019, and 80 percent believe it will occur by before the end of 2020. In Canada, 86 percent of CFOs believe a recession will start next year, and 67 percent agreed in Europe. “The U.S. outlook has declined, and moreover the outlook is even worse in many other parts of the world, which will lead to softer demand for U.S. goods,” said one of the survey’s directors. [source]

To give a more balanced view of recession, the chief equity strategist at Goldman Sachs gives a 2020 recession a 30 percent chance; and it’s something he describes as “unlikely” because the U.S. economy continues to grow, although at a decelerating rate. [source] Additionally, last month economist Mohammad El-Erian (whom I respect) said he was still bullish on the U.S. economy, and described the reason why the global economy looks shaky is because “the rest of the world is lagging on pro-growth policies [like the U.S.].” [source]


 

What I’m Looking at this Morning

More than 750 million worldwide would migrate if they could

Incoming NY attorney general plans to open new investigations into Trump family

FBI: Chinese espionage poses ‘most severe’ threat to U.S. security


 

Notable Quotable

“I would love to be able to regulate the content of speech. The First Amendment prevents me from doing so.” – Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA) on CNN

Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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