Early Warning for 12 March 2019 – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 12 March 2019

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Tuesday, 12 March 2019.


Government Today

The President is scheduled to be presented with the Boy Scouts’ Report to the Nation.

Secretary Pompeo is scheduled to give a speech in Houston today. This morning, the State Department announced that they will “withdraw all remaining personnel” from the U.S. Embassy in Venezuela. “This decision reflects the deteriorating situation… as well as the conclusion that the presence of U.S. diplomatic staff at the embassy has become a constraint on U.S. policy.”

Acting Defense Secretary Shanahan is scheduled to meet with the Qatari defense minister.



Significant House Activity:

  • Hearing on State Foreign Operations and Related Programs (Appropriations subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs)

Significant Senate Activity:

  • Hearing to examine artificial intelligence initiatives within the Defense Department (Armed Services subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities)

* Only events pertinent to national security are listed. Significant reporting will appear in this week’s Strategic and National Intelligence reports.



These are the last publicly reported locations of deployed carrier groups. Those not listed were last reported in port.

The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported as in the Strait of Singapore.

The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) is forward deployed to Yokosuka, Japan.


Far Left Daily

“I’m not for impeachment. This is news. I’m going to give you some news right now because I haven’t said this to any press person before. But since you asked, and I’ve been thinking about this: Impeachment is so divisive to the country that unless there’s something so compelling and overwhelming and bipartisan, I don’t think we should go down that path, because it divides the country. And he’s just not worth it.” – House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

“In the absence of very graphic evidence, it would be difficult to get the support in the Senate needed to make an impeachment successful. Again, my feeling is let’s see what Bob Mueller produces. But the evidence would have to be pretty overwhelming.” – Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), House Intelligence Committee chairman

“In #LeadFromTheOutside, I explore how to be intentional about plans, but flexible enough to adapt. 20 years ago, I never thought I’d be ready to run for POTUS before 2028. But life comes at you fast… Now 2020 is definitely on the table.” – Stacey Abrams

“My task is to make certain that a Democrat is elected not only to the White House but that we have a Democratic majority in the Senate and a Democratic majority in Congress.” – Stacey Abrams

“Record highs – suicides, drug overdoses, anxiety, depression, financial insecurity. Record or multi-decade lows – business formation, labor force participation, interstate migration, marriage, childbirths. Life expectancy has declined for 3 years. We feel sick because we are.” – Andrew Yang, Democratic presidential candidate



In 2017, President Trump’s budget proposal predicted a $488 billion budget deficit for fiscal year 2020. In his latest proposal, the budget deficit rises to $1.1 trillion for FY2020. This is likely to begin the first of several years of trillion-dollar budget deficits, which could become the norm for the foreseeable future.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker shows a projected 0.2 percent economic growth for Q1 2019. The latest Blue Chip consensus, last updated earlier this month, shows 1.5 percent, which is expected to drop, as well.

On the bright side, some economists are predicting Q2 will return to 3 percent GDP growth. High Frequency Economics’ chief economist writes, “The backdrop for consumers still looks consistent with solid growth in spending, suggesting some catch-up in the next few months….we expect the extra weakness in Q1 to be offset by catch-up in Q2, and we are raising our estimate for Q2 to 3.2% from 2.3%.”


What I’m Looking at this Morning

U.S. threatens to cut intelligence sharing with Germany of Huawei rift

If liberals won’t enforce borders, fascists will

The trouble with Biden (spoiler: he’s white and male)


Notable Quotable

“The person who defines that race is going to win the race. If this is about Donald Trump and his personality, he isn’t going to win it.” – Former House Speaker Paul Ryan

Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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