Early Warning for 12 June 2018

Good Morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Tuesday, 12 June 2018. (All times Eastern.)

 

Advanced Early Warning: Today is truly historic, as it looks like POTUS Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un have struck a denuclearization deal that also provides security assurances to Pyongyang. There are four main points in the document both men signed:

The United States and the DPRK committed to establishing new US-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.

The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

The full joint statement put out by the white house is here.

ALSO: Trump’s chief economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, had a heart attack overnight, but is in good condition at Walter Reed Medical Center.

“Earlier today National Economic Council Director and Assistant to the President Larry Kudlow, experienced what his doctors say was a very mild heart attack,” press secretary Sarah Sanders told reporters late Monday.

“Larry is currently in good condition at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, and his doctors expect he will make a full and speedy recovery. The president and his administration send their thoughts and prayers to Larry and his family,” she said.


White House

POTUS has finished up his summit with Kim Jong-un and is departing Singapore enroute to the United States.


State Department

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is traveling with President Trump on travel to and from Singapore, from June 9-13.

At 7:00 p.m., Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan will deliver remarks at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Advisory Board Dinner, in Washington, DC.

Assistant Secretary for Educational and Cultural Affairs Marie Royce is on travel to Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, and the Republic of Korea, from June 10-23 to promote and strengthen the State Department’s cultural and educational diplomacy efforts.

At 10:00 a.m., the United States Global AIDS Coordinator and Special Representative for Global Health Diplomacy Ambassador Birx delivers the U.S. Government National Statement on the Implementation of the Declaration of Commitment on HIV/AIDS and the Political Declarations on HIV/AIDS at the United Nations General Assembly, in New York City.


Defense Department

Secretary of Defense James N. Mattis, Deputy Secretary of Defense Patrick M. Shanahan and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr. have no public or media events on their schedules.

Army Lt. Gen. Gwen Bingham, assistant chief of staff for installation management, will speak at 7 a.m. at the Association of the U.S. Army Institute for Land Warfare breakfast series, at the General Gordon R. Sullivan Conference & Event Center in Arlington, Virginia.

Aircraft carrier movement/activities:

Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) moved out of the Adriatic Sea and is now in the Mediterranean Sea.

Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) is operating in the Western Pacific and is now operating off the coast of Guam.

George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) is sailing off the coast of Virginia.

The Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) has returned to port in Norfolk, Va.

A conflict requiring a Carrier Strike Group does not appear imminent.


Congress

House schedule:

Senate schedule:

10:00 a.m.: Convene and resume consideration of H.R.5515, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019.


Economy

(1) Inflation in May was at its highest level in six years and is eating into wage increases, according to the Federal Reserve. That reinforces the Fed’s outlook for gradual interest-rate hikes even as wage gains remain limited despite the fact that we’re experiencing an 18-year low in unemployment. The Labor Dept. reports the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2 percent from the previous month but 2.8 percent from the previous year. That’s in line with economist estimates. That’s the biggest year-over-year gain since February 2012, and it follows a 2.5 percent increase in April. Higher gasoline prices and higher rents are said to be the principal causes of inflation.

(2) Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones thinks the stock market will go “crazy” following the midterm elections in November. Jones, a hedge fund manager who predicted the October 1987 crash, said he sees a major rally at year’s end. “I think we’ll see rates move significantly higher beginning some time late third quarter, early fourth quarter,” Jones said. “And I think the stock market also has the ability to go a lot higher at the end of the year. … I can see things getting crazy particularly at year-end after the midterm elections … to the upside.” But that’s where the good news ends. Jones then said he sees a post-jump recession. “I think this is going to end with a lot higher prices and forcing the Fed to shut it off,” he said, noting he doesn’t see a 1987-like crash ahead. “When you look at the stock market relative to GDP, we’re at levels that historically in some other countries led to a blow-off [rally] and then some type of economic contraction. … It’s an old story, we’ll probably play it again.”


Yesterday’s Significant Reporting

Mexico candidate shot while posing for selfie as killings of politicians continue

Brace for the World Economy’s Most Important Week of the Year

Bitcoin price plunges after cryptocurrency exchange is hacked

Top US general and Russian counterpart hold talks in Finland


Notable Quotable

“I do trust him, yeah. Maybe in a year you’ll be interviewing and I’ll say I made a mistake. It’s possible. We’re dealing at a high level, a lot of things can change a lot of things are possible.” — POTUS Trump in an interview with ABC News following his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Jon E. Dougherty is a political, foreign policy and national security analyst and reporter with nearly 30 years of experience in both fields. A U.S. Army veteran of Operation Enduring Freedom, he holds BA in Political Science from Ashford University and an MA in National Security Studies/Intelligence Analysis from American Military University.

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