Early Warning for 11 June 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Monday, 11 June 2018. (All times Eastern.)

 

Advanced Early Warning: POTUS Trump has traveled to Singapore in advance of his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Kim arrived in Singapore aboard a Chinese jet and brought his own store of food with him, as well as a large security entourage. “It’s unknown territory in the truest sense, but I really feel confident,” Trump told reporters Saturday. “I feel that Kim Jong Un wants to do something great for his people and he has that opportunity and he won’t have that opportunity again.” We’ll see.

ALSO: The mainstream media is depicting Trump’s G7 meeting as a disaster, but that’s not surprising given that the media hasn’t been friendly to Trump or even fair at times. But it’s important to note something here that seldom gets mentioned by the American press: The United States is the largest market on the planet, but we’ve made some of the worst deals when it comes to trade. There should be no reason why the world’s largest economy runs a deficit in the hundreds of billions every year. That’s what Trump is attempting to change, and you know, in an established world order, change doesn’t come easy. If he’s successful, however, there is no telling how quickly or how much the U.S. economy will grow.


White House

As noted above, POTUS Trump is in Singapore to meet the North Korean leader, but that won’t come first. At 12:30 a.m. he meets with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong at Istana Palace. Then at 2:00 a.m., he will participate in a meet and greet with the U.S. Embassy personnel in Singapore.


State Department

Secretary Mike Pompeo will accompany President Trump on travel to Singapore, from June 9-13.

At 2:00 p.m., Deputy Secretary John Sullivan will attend the Millennium Challenge Corporation Board of Director’s Meeting at the Department of State.

At 4:00 p.m., Sullivan will meet the Brunei Second Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Dato Seri Paduka Erywan Yusof at the State Department.

Asst. Secretary for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs Kirsten Madison will meet with Miami Dade Police Department Director Juan Perez, at the Miami-Dade Public Safety Training Institute in Miami, Florida.


Defense Department

Secretary of Defense James N. Mattis, Deputy Secretary of Defense Patrick M. Shanahan and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr. have no public or media events on their schedules.

There have been no major changes in aircraft carrier deployment from 9 June and there is no imminent conflict requiring a Carrier Strike Group.

As a reminder:

Aircraft carrier movement/activities:

Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) is operating in the Adriatic Sea.

Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) is operating in the Western Pacific.

George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) and the Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) are both operating off the coast of Virginia.

A conflict requiring a Carrier Strike Group does not appear imminent.


Congress

House:

Senate:

There are no committee meetings scheduled for today.

3:00 p.m.: Convene and resume consideration of the motion to proceed to H.R.5515, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019.


Economy

(1) “Unapologetically bullish” Steve Chiavarone, of Federated Investors, is betting that the S&P 500 will grow in leaps and bounds this year. Chiavarone has a 3,100 price target on the S&P 500 for the year, one of the most bullish calls on the Street. That target implies an 11 percent advance from current levels and a 16 percent gain for the year. Right now the S&P 500 appears stuck at the 2,800 for now.

(2) Stocks were cautious ahead of the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore and after a somewhat rocky G7 meeting in Canada. But stocks nonetheless climbed last week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting its best weekly gain since March. “Trump’s next meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Tuesday will be of interest as the US President looks to score a victory and distract from the country’s souring relationship with its Western allies,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda. “Whether the two leaders are actually on the same page in regards to the goals of the meeting could determine just how successful the talks are but Trump in particular will be keen to be seen making progress towards denuclearization.”


Yesterday’s Significant Reporting

High-stakes summit in Singapore between Trump, Kim

France: ‘Fits of anger’ cannot dictate international cooperation

China, Russia Cementing Rising Eastern Bloc as Trump Rattles G-7

 

Notable Quotable:

“The golden era of multilateralism is over, facing a crisis not only in the G-7 but also in the SCO [Shanghai Cooperation Organization]. Even though China’s state-owned media touted the so-called rich fruits of the SCO, only a few tangible achievements were in fact generated from this summit.” — Pang Zhongying, a senior fellow at Pangoal, a Beijing-based research institution, when discussing the practical effect of the China-Russia alliance and SCO’s long-term viability.

 

Jon E. Dougherty is a political, foreign policy and national security analyst and reporter with nearly 30 years of experience in both fields. A U.S. Army veteran of Operation Enduring Freedom, he holds BA in Political Science from Ashford University and an MA in National Security Studies/Intelligence Analysis from American Military University.

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