Early Warning for 09 August 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Thursday, 09 August 2018. (All times Eastern.)

 

Another round of sanctions against Russia is scheduled to get into effect later this month over Russia’s alleged role in the poisoning of Sergei Skripal. Additionally, there may be an automatic, second round of sanctions if Russia fails to meet three conditions, which include the stoppage of use of chemical and biological weapons in violation of international law, “reliable assurances” that Russia will not use chemical or biological weapons in the future, and that Russia allows on-site inspections from the United Nations to ensure that Russia no longer using chemical or biological weapons. According to a State Department official speaking on background, the next round of sanctions “are in general more draconian than the first round.”

 

White House

The President is still at Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, NJ, and will participate with a roundtable with state leaders on prison reform.


State Department

Secretary of State department officials have no significant publicly scheduled events.


Defense Department

Defense Secretary Mattis and Vice President Pence are expected to jointly announce a new defense policy on the Space Force.

The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) was last reported in the eastern Pacific.

The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported back in port at San Diego.

The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) departed port in Yokosuka, Japan to avoid a typhoon.

Conflict requiring a Carrier Strike Group does not appear imminent.


Congress

Significant House Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

* Reporting will appear in the Strategic Intelligence Summary or National Intelligence Bulletin.


Economy/Finance

– Following Energy Secretary Rick Perry’s announcement last week that the U.S. was nearing energy independence comes this chart from Goldman Sachs showing that, under the Trump administration, the U.S. is projected to mark a major national security milestone.

 


Weather

The National Hurricane Center reports that Hurricane Debbie is headed east in the Atlantic and is not expected to make landfall in the U.S.

Drought conditions persist across much of the Southwest.

 


What I’m Looking at this Morning

Illinois Gov: ‘National Guard is not for neighborhood policing’ re: Chicago

Admiral: Russian submarine activity highest since Cold War

JP Morgan: Trump may sell dollars in trade war


Notable Quotable

“[Facebook] has fomented the false notion that connecting the world is a good thing,” Galloway said. “We, as a species, are tribal and lies spread faster than truth. With no guardrails or (expensive) human discretion screening content/advertisers, we have offered up the mother of all Trojan horses for bad actors.” – Scott Galloway, NYU professor

 

Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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