Early Warning for 08 August 2018 – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 08 August 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Wednesday, 08 August 2018. (All times Eastern.)


EARLY WARNING: Reading through the State Department’s press briefing transcript yesterday, State spokeswoman Heather Nauert said that the U.S. still supported Georgia’s ascension into NATO. “NATO took a decision about that at the Bucharest summit, I believe it was, back in 2008 that Georgia will become a member of NATO. I know there’s certain things that have to be done. I don’t have any additional details on that, but my understanding is that is in train right now.” Today, Russia is reiterating its warning that war may break out if Georgia joins NATO.


White House

The President is still at Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, NJ, and his having dinner with supporters tonight.

State Department

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has a meeting with the Egyptian foreign minister today.

Defense Department

Senior Defense officials have no publicly scheduled events.

The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) was last reported in the eastern Pacific.

The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported back in port at San Diego.

The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) departed port in Yokosuka, Japan to avoid a typhoon.

Conflict requiring a Carrier Strike Group does not appear imminent.


Significant House Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

* Reporting will appear in the Strategic Intelligence Summary or National Intelligence Bulletin.


– Purdue University’s Agricultural Economy Barometer is showing a steep decline for U.S. farmers as tariffs weigh on exports. President Trump is readying tariffs against $16 billion worth of Chinese goods and the Chinese say they’re ready to respond. It could get worse for farmers who already say in increasing numbers that they have more reasons to expect “bad times” ahead.

– The Oxford Economics Global Risk Survey shows that protectionism, high sovereign and private debt levels, and falling asset prices are the biggest global economic threats over the next five years. The prevailing opinion on geopolitical risks fell from last quarter while the risk of a global rise of populism climbed.


The National Hurricane Center upgraded yesterday’s depression, which is now named Hurricane Debbie and is still not expected to make landfall in the U.S.

Drought conditions persist across much of the Southwest.


What I’m Looking at this Morning

Hyten: How to address Russia, Chinese missile threats

U.S. to impose additional tariffs on China

Notable Quotable

“Whatever our colleagues from the alliance may say, NATO countries see Russia as a potential enemy. We can’t help getting worried when the circle around our country keeps narrowing as more and more countries join NATO. NATO’s expansion clearly poses a threat to the Russian Federation.” – Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev


Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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