Early Warning for 07 January 2018 – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 07 January 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Monday, 07 January 2019.


White House

The President is scheduled to have lunch with the Vice President and then receive his intelligence briefing.

Shutdown: Day 17. The partial government shutdown is now tied for the third-longest on record and threatens to become the second-longest tonight, as neither President Trump or House Democrats are showing any willingness to cave. President Trump did, however, recently say that the border wall — which he referred to as “a barrier” — would be steel instead of concrete. Meanwhile, White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders over the weekend said that the president “absolutely” stands by his claim that he could oversee a partial government shutdown that lasts for months. On the topic of coming payday, Trump acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney recently said, “If we don’t have an agreement — I think by midnight on the 8th, which is Tuesday — then payroll will not go out as originally planned on Friday night.”



State Department

Secretary Pompeo has been on travel since Tuesday to the Middle East, shoring up alliances and meeting with security partners after the fallout of the Khashoggi murder and potential shakeup in U.S. foreign policy.


Defense Department

Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan: Nothing significant to report.


These are the last publicly reported locations of these ships. Conflict requiring an aircraft carrier/carrier strike group does not appear imminent.

The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) was last reported as having returned to San Diego.

The Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) was last reported as having returned to Norfolk.

The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported as in port at Jebel Ali, United Arab Emirates.

The Harry Truman (CVN-75) was last reported as having returned to Norfolk.

The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) was last reported as having returned to home port in Yokosuka, Japan.

The George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) was last reported as having returned to Norfolk.


Bold indicates significant changes to last reported location or other amplifying information.



Significant House Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

* Only events pertinent to national security are listed. Significant reporting will appear in this week’s Strategic and National Intelligence reports



On 02 March, another round of U.S. sanctions is scheduled to be placed on Chinese goods. U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators begin two-day talks this week to avoid that escalation.

The U.S. economy remains poised for growth, as manufacturing payrolls beat expectations, factories continued to hire, prime age workforce participation continues to improve, and wage growth exceeded economist forecasts.


What I’m Looking at this Morning

Navy sends ship into Black Sea

China protests presence of U.S. warship in South China Sea

Heavy duty truck orders tumble 43 percent in December


Notable Quotable

“We have to build the wall or we have to build a barrier. The barrier or the wall can be of steel instead of concrete if that works better.” – President Trump on trying to break the shutdown stalemate

Mike Shelby is a former military intelligence NCO and contract intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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