Early Warning for 07 August 2018 – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 07 August 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Tuesday, 07 August 2018. (All times Eastern.)


EARLY WARNING: Another round of sanctions against Iran will be implemented today after President Trump revoked the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, otherwise known as the Iran Deal, earlier this year. In November, another round of sanctions will go into effect and are intended to cripple the Iranian economy, but there is some question as to just how closely European nations will cooperate with the U.S. sanctions. [source] In related news, yesterday the Pentagon confirmed that they were monitoring ongoing Iranian military exercises aimed at shutting down the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman.


White House

The President is scheduled to have dinner with business leaders. No further information.

State Department

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is attending meetings and briefings at Foggy Bottom.

Defense Department

Nothing significant to report.

The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) was last reported in the eastern Pacific.

The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported back in port at San Diego.

The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) departed port in Yokosuka, Japan to avoid a typhoon.

Conflict requiring a Carrier Strike Group does not appear imminent.


Significant House Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

* Reporting will appear in the Strategic Intelligence Summary or National Intelligence Bulletin.


– The Trump administration has been widely criticized this year about why wages weren’t increasing, which happens when unemployment drops and there are more jobs than job-seekers. So far, wage growth has been muted, but in a new research report, Morgan Stanley is forecasting a sharp increase in wages by the end of 2018.

– Meat packing companies like Tyson, Pilgrim’s Pride, Sanderson Farms, and others are reporting higher production but lower demand for their food products due to Mexican and Chinese tariffs. Says Tyson CEO Tom Hayes: “Intertwined with uncertainty on trade policies and tariffs are increasing supplies of relatively low-priced beef and pork that are competing with chicken.” It could force those companies to look for ways to save money — like layoffs.



The National Hurricane Center reports that a low pressure system has formed in the Atlantic, and could develop tropical characteristics today. The NHC has upgraded it to a 60 percent chance of developing into a cyclone, although it’s not forecast to make landfall.

Drought conditions persist across much of the Southwest.


What I’m Looking at this Morning

‘Strong possibility’ of second Trump-Kim summit

CNO: Rising threat of Chinese navy operating in the Atlantic Ocean

Notable Quotable

“There’s nobody in this administration starry-eyed about the prospects of North Korea actually denuclearizing. The president is giving Kim Jong-Un a master class in how to hold a door open for somebody, and if the North Koreans can’t figure out how to walk through it, even the president’s fiercest critics will not be able to say it’s because he didn’t open it wide enough.”- John Bolton, National Security Advisor


Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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