Early Warning for 06 November – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 06 November

Admin note: Thanks for being patient while I was down with the plague last week. Early Warning will resume this week.

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Monday, 06 November.

On Sunday, a shooter walked into a church in Sutherland Springs, Texas, and opened fire on the congregation, killing 26. While there’s been much speculation about the shooter, this is what we know:

  • The alleged shooter Devin Kelley had a wife and child.
  • Devin Kelley was court-martialed in 2012 for assault against his wife and child.
  • Devin Kelley then received a Bad Conduct Discharge from the Air Force.
  • Kelley attempted to obtain a License to Carry in the state of Texas, but was denied.
  • Kelley’s in-laws had previously attended the church where the shooting took place. Other reports say that Kelley’s wife also attended.
  • Kelley is being widely reported as an “outcast” and atheist who mocked Christianity.
  • There are also indications that Kelley supported the social justice movement and may have been an antifascist.
  • Kelley was dressed in all black and was wearing a tactical vest.
  • No one inside the church was armed at the time of the attack.
  • Kelley was shot by a neighbor before driving off and crashing into a ditch.
  • It’s believed that Kelley died of a self-inflicted gunshot wound.

Based on what I’ve seen, I don’t believe this to have been an “Antifa hit” as some have speculated. This sounds like a continuation of the charges of domestic abuse, and that Kelley targeted the church over these disputes. I’m entirely open to new information as it comes out, however, at this time I don’t believe that politics was the primary motivator for the attack.


Join me on Forward Observer Radio today at 2pm Central as I talk about this weekend’s Refuse Fascism protests, what went down in Austin, Texas, and what’s next for the antifascist movement. You can listen live on Spreaker or catch the podcast edition on iTunes.


Low Intensity Conflict is a weekly look at the development of domestic conflict, revolutionary political movements, tribal violence, and other factors that disrupt our “civil” society. Each Thursday, we bring you the latest news and analysis from the front lines of the culture war, and look for ways in which culture is creating violence. Receive this report from our intelligence and special operations veterans through a Monthly or Annual subscription.

Mike Shelby is a former military intelligence NCO and contract intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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