Early Warning for 06 February 2018

The daily Early Warning intelligence report is back. I’ll be covering recent and breaking news, and providing insights and analysis into conflict, instability, collapse, and other potential disruptions facing the nation.

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Tuesday, 06 February 2018.

Last week’s market sell-off bled into this week, where we saw the Dow drop 1,600 points before recovering somewhat. That rippled into global markets, most of which were down yesterday, and now this morning we wake up to Dow futures pointing down for another day.

Lest anyone be concerned, the consensus on Wall Street is that this is a healthy correction and not the start of something worse.  But that’s not to say that some of this recent financial news isn’t concerning.

New numbers are in and the federal government is set to borrow nearly a trillion dollars this year ($955B) — that’s up 84 percent from last year ($519B). [source] The Congressional Budget Office is blaming the increase in borrowing as a result of the tax cuts, while the Trump administration says that the increased economic activity will lead to an increase in tax revenues.

I hate to keep harping on Ray Dalio’s sentiments that we’re staring a recession in the face at some point in the next couple of years, but now that the new Federal Reserve chairman is going to pursue rising interest rates, there’s going to be lots more talk of recession in the future. If we’re borrowing basically a trillion dollars this fiscal year, and presumably a little less for the next fiscal year, then I shudder to think how much we’re going to have to borrow if a recession hits, Americans start losing jobs and spending less, and economic activity and tax revenues decline precipitously.

I’m not losing sleep over it just yet, but we should all be forewarned that it’s one possibility on the horizon.

On today’s episode of The ACE on Forward Observer Radio, I’ll be talking about why the collapse of all things is inevitable and why we could expect catastrophic collapse of large scale systems within our lifetimes. You can listen live on Spreaker today at 2pm Central, or catch the podcast edition on iTunes or Spotify, or iHeartRadio.

Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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