Early Warning for 06 August 2018 – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 06 August 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Monday, 06 August 2018. (All times Eastern.)


White House

The President has no publicly scheduled events today.

State Department

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is attending meetings and briefings at Foggy Bottom.

Defense Department

Defense Secretary Mattis and other senior Defense officials have no public events scheduled for today.

The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) was last reported in the Hawaii Area of Operations (RIMPAC 2018).

The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported in the eastern Pacific.

The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) was last reported at port in Yokosuka, Japan.

Conflict requiring a Carrier Strike Group does not appear imminent.


Significant House Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

* Reporting will appear in the Strategic Intelligence Summary or National Intelligence Bulletin.


– A closer look at the unemployment numbers shows that unemployment among Latino Americans hit the lowest level on record, and that underemployment is at the lowest level since 2001. We know how poorly the unemployment numbers are counted, but as a number for comparison, the Trump Bump is putting America back to work.

– In last week’s rate meeting, Fed chief Jerome Powell repeatedly referred to the U.S. economy as “strong”. It’s the first time since 2006 that the Federal Reserve has officially called U.S. economic activity as “strong”.

– The chart below depicts the spread between “current conditions” and “future expectations”. A peak in this spread is statistically correlated to an economic downturn. This is another indicator that while things are rosy now, we’re probably looking at another recession in the next couple years. And keep in mind that the Office of Management and Budget is projecting trillion dollar deficits for each of the next four years. This could be painful.



The National Hurricane Center reports that a low pressure system is forming in the Atlantic, but it has less than a 40 percent chance of developing further.

Drought conditions persist across much of the Southwest.


What I’m Looking at this Morning

Chinese Communist Party: We’re not bending to U.S. trade pressure

Kissinger: ‘We are in a very, very grave period’

Multiple people arrested for threatening GOP politicians

Notable Quotable

“We’re in discussion with Adm. Davidson and the Indo-Pacific command. There’s a request for forces, and I think you will see some Coast Guard presence in that part of the world.” – U.S. Coast Guard commandant on deploying USCG boats to the Indo-Pacific theater


Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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