Early Warning for 05 September 2018 – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 05 September 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Wednesday, 05 September 2018. (All times Eastern.)


White House

The President is scheduled to receive his intelligence briefing, meet with the Emir of Kuwait, and then meet with Republican congressional leadership.


State Department

Secretary Pompeo is scheduled to travel to India this week to meet with his counterparts and discuss security and defense cooperation issues.

Of note: From 26 August to 05 September, the Assistant Secretary for Economic and Business Affairs is on travel to Japan, Philippines, Singapore, and India, to discuss the Trump administration’s strategy to ensure “a free and open Indo-Pacific region”. That’s State Department-speak for preventing Chinese dominance in the region.


Defense Department

Defense Secretary Mattis is scheduled to be in India this week to discuss security and defense cooperation with Secretary Pompeo and their Indian counterparts.


The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) was last reported as having returned to port in San Diego.

The Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) was last reported as having returned to Norfolk.

The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported back as participating in an exercise off the coast of southern California.

The Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) was last reported in the Atlantic.

The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) was last reported in the South China Sea.

The George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) was last reported as having returned to port in Norfolk.

Conflict requiring a Carrier Strike Group does not appear imminent.



Significant House Activity:

  • Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey is scheduled to appear before a House committee on political bias and censorship.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • The Judiciary Committee continues its hearing for Trump Supreme Court pick Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
  • The Intelligence Committee holds a hearing on foreign influence operations on social media platforms.
  • The Judiciary Committee holds a hearing to examine the value of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

* Reporting will appear in the Strategic Intelligence Summary or National Intelligence Bulletin.



– Recent data from the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow shows that Quarter 3 economic growth expectations has increased to 4.5 percent after U.S. factories were shown to be firing on all cylinders.

– Here’s an updated chart exhibiting a warning sign of recession. The spread on the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries has been a consistent early warning indicator of recession, and we can see that a flattening yield curve is shaping up like previous recessions. It’s difficult (impossible) right now to say exactly when the next recession will start, but I feel confident that we’re staring one in the face.




The National Hurricane Center reports Hurricane Gordon made landfall on the Gulf Coast and has since been downgraded to a tropical depression. That storm system is expected to continue through the rest of this week. Behind Gordon, Hurricane Florence is headed northwest and we should have better information available later this week or early next week.


REMINDER: This hurricane watch section will remain in this report through the end of the season. I check the latest from the National Hurricane Center each morning and will provide details as necessary.


Drought conditions persist across much of the Southwest. This map is updated every Thursday.




What I’m Looking at this Morning

Marines in Sweden readying next exercise

U.S. accuses China of espionage campaign on LinkedIn

NBC orders new ‘Law & Order’ show about hate crimes

GAO: FEMA overwhelmed by 2017’s hurricanes and wildfires


Notable Quotable

“[FEMA was] 30% understaffed when Harvey hit. By the time Maria hit Puerto Rico, they were down to the bottom of the barrel.” – Chris Currie, director of emergency management issues at the Government Accountability Office

Mike Shelby is a former military intelligence NCO and contract intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Name *