Early Warning for 05 March 2019 – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 05 March 2019

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Tuesday, 05 March 2019.


Early Warning: Hillary’s out for 2020. She announced last night that she’s not going to run. Meanwhile, a new Morning Consult survey shows that Joe Biden tops the favorites list at 31 percent, followed by Bernie Sanders at 27 percent, and Kamala Harris at 11 percent. Also, former attorney general Eric Holder announced that he would not run.

Also: Pakistan reported this morning that it stopped an Indian submarine from entering Pakistani waters. Pakistani officials didn’t elaborate, but it’s a good reminder that the two sides continue a tense relationship, even as sporadic fighting continues in the Kashmir region.


Government Today


The President is scheduled to sign an executive order entitled, “National Roadmap to Empower Veterans and End Veteran Suicide”.

Secretary Pompeo is scheduled to give a speech at the 57th Annual U.S. Senate Youth Program Luncheon, then meet with the UN Special Envoy for Syria.

Acting Defense Secretary Shanahan has no publicly scheduled events.



Yesterday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said that he couldn’t stop a floor vote stopping President Trump’s national emergency declaration. The Senate is expected to hold a vote by 15 March and it appears there are enough votes to overturn the president’s declaration.


Significant House Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • The Armed Services Cmte is scheduled to hold a hearing to examine United States European Command and United States Transportation Command for 2020 and future years.
  • The Energy and Natural Resources Cmte is scheduled to hold a hearing to examine the electricity sector in a changing climate.

* Only events pertinent to national security are listed. Significant reporting will appear in this week’s Strategic and National Intelligence reports.



These are the last publicly reported locations of deployed carrier groups. Those not listed were last reported in port.

The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported as in the Gulf of Tonkin.

The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) is forward deployed to Yokosuka, Japan.

Far Left Daily

“We recognized that we could center communities of color, marginalized communities, and talk about their needs without alienating the white community. That’s been a false narrative that’s been part of politics, especially in the South, for a very long time.” – Stacey Abrams, who says by April she’ll announce a run for the Senate, governor (again), or president


China lowered its forecast for economic growth to between 6 and 6.5 percent, which, while it represents a mild slowdown, would be the lowest in nearly three decades. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang warned this morning that there’s a “tough economic battle ahead” for the country, as he announced tax cuts and more stimulus.

Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass warned on CNBC yesterday that he expects interest rates to be cut down to zero in 2020. “Southeast Asia is headed for a recession in 2019. Europe is headed for a recession in 2019. The world is not just going to have a recession and the U.S. is going to keep growing.”


What I’m Looking at this Morning

U.S. deploys THAAD to Israel


Notable Quotable

“We also welcome news of Venezuelan military and security service personnel doing the right thing and recognizing Interim President Juan Guaido. The international community must unite and push for the end of Maduro’s brutal regime and the peaceful restoration of democracy in Venezuela.” – State Department press release on the return of Juan Guaido to Venezuela

Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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