Early Warning for 04 December – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 04 December

Starting in January 2018, this daily Early Warning product will be available only to subscribers of Strategic Intelligence or Low Intensity Conflict. Early Warning will be available online, via email, and the audio version will be published at 8am CST. Subscribe here.

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning/Weekend Recap for Monday, 04 December 2017.


Over the weekend, the Alt-Right led a protest in Washington, D.C., against the not guilty verdict of illegal immigrant and seven-time felon Joe Ines Garcia Zarate’s murder of Kate Steinle. Led by Richard Spencer (AltRight.com), Mike Enoch (TheRightStuff.biz), and Matthew Heimbach (the national socialist Traditionalist Workers Party), the flash protest involved some two dozen members of the Alt-Right, and lasted for about 20 minutes. A few dozen antifascists showed up to counter-protest before police separated the two groups and escorted the Alt-Right away. A full write-up will appear in a Low Intensity Conflict report due out this afternoon.

Meanwhile, the FBI is opening an investigation into some antifascists, according to FBI chief Christopher Ray. Careful to explain that ‘antifa’ as an organization or ideology is not being investigated, certain members did draw the interest or ire of law enforcement for their willingness “to commit criminal activity on kind of antifa ideology.” For now, the FBI is still trying to piece together the three requisites of a domestic terror case. “There has to be credible evidence of federal crime, [and] threat of force or violence to further a political or social goal. And if we have all of those three things, then we open a very aggressive investigation,” said Wray.

On Saturday, the New York Times reported that special counsel Robert Mueller removed FBI agent Peter Strzok, a lead investigator, from his team over some anti-Trump messages sent to a colleague. That removal happened back in August. Strzok previously led the investigation into Mrs. Clinton’s email server wrongdoing, and was responsible for recommending that no charges were brought against Mrs. Clinton. In related news, The Justice Department’s inspector general is “leading a broad examination of how the FBI handled the Clinton email investigation.” [source]

In a story that’s still developing, President Trump is expected to approve a National Security Strategy soon, if he hasn’t already. One interesting report I believe is related — Peter Vincent Pry, a former CIA officer who served on the Congressional Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Commission, was seen exiting the White House late last week or over the weekend. That’s reason enough to believe that the new National Security Strategy will feature a special focus on homeland security, resilience, and protection from potential nuclear and EMP threats.


On Sunday, a South Korean defense official confirmed that six U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptors had arrived in South Korea ahead of Vigilant ACE 18, an annual combat exercise. “The US aircraft that have landed on South Korea include six F-22s, six F-35s, six EA-18Gs. More than 10 F-15Cs and F-16s have also been deployed for the drill.” A full write-up will appear in a Strategic Intelligence report due out this afternoon. [source]

SECDEF Mattis is in Kuwait today, after traveling to Pakistan, Jordan, and Egypt over the weekend. Mattis met with defense officials. Topics included countering violent extremism, denying extremist groups safe haven, and a new strategy for Afghanistan.

SECSTATE Tillerson is traveling this week and is expected to meet with foreign officials in Brussels, Belgium; Vienna, Austria; and Paris, France. In Brussels, SECSTATE will attend the NATO Foreign Ministers meeting. Afterwards, he will attend the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) meeting in Vienna. Rounding out his trip, SECSTATE is then scheduled to travel to Paris to discuss issues of French cooperation in Syria, the broader Middle East, and elsewhere.


Join me on Forward Observer Radio today at 2pm Central as we talk about current and future events, national and community security, and more. You can listen live on Spreaker or catch the podcast edition on iTunes or Spotify.

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Looking for the fair and accurate reporting? Each week, the analysts at Forward Observer produce two full-length intelligence newsletters. Strategic Intelligence focuses on the risk of war, systems disruption, and other strategic threats affecting the United States. And Low Intensity Conflict is a weekly look at the development of domestic conflict, revolutionary political movements, tribal violence, and other factors that disrupt our “civil” society.

Mike Shelby is a former military intelligence NCO and contract intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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