Early Warning for 04 December 2018 – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 04 December 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Tuesday, 04 December 2018.


White House

The President: Nothing significant to report.


State Department

Secretary Pompeo is in Brussels, Belgium this week in a semi-annual NATO Foreign Ministers meeting. According to a press release from the State Department, talks will include how to deepen relationships with Georgia and Ukraine.


Defense Department

Defense Secretary Mattis has no publicly scheduled events.


These are the last publicly reported locations of these ships. Conflict requiring an aircraft carrier/carrier strike group does not appear imminent.

The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) was last reported as having returned to port in San Diego.

The Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) was last reported as being in the west Atlantic.

* The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported as being in the Indian Ocean.

The Harry Truman (CVN-75) was last reported as being in the Mediterranean Sea.

* The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) was last reported as being in waters south of Japan, and is scheduled to make a port call in Hong Kong. (Analyst Comment: Earlier this year, the Chinese government denied a port call to another American ship.)

The George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) was last reported as being in the west Atlantic.


Bold indicates significant changes to last reported location or other amplifying information.



Significant House Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

* Only events pertinent to national security are listed. Significant reporting will appear in this week’s Strategic and National Intelligence reports.



This morning, there’s lots of talk about a flattened yield curve. An inversion of the 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield has been a solid indicator of a recession on the horizon, and we got pretty close yesterday. The 10-year sits at 2.964 this morning, and the 2-year is at 2.825. There was a crossover of the rising 2-year over the 3-year and 5-year yields, which is potentially a warning for the 10-year. Overall, it means that investors see greater risks over the next two years. It’s also a cyclical process, which is why this indicator tracks so well with recessions.


What I’m Looking at this Morning

JP Morgan says cash is safer than stocks ahead of low expectations in 2019

UK spy chief says Russia will pay for its hostility

Beijing ‘steps up naval patrols’ to push back against U.S. presence in South China Sea


Notable Quotable

“The benefits of this strong economy and sound financial system have not reached all Americans. The aggregate statistics tend to mask important disparities by income, race, and geography.” – Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell

Mike Shelby is a former military intelligence NCO and contract intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

1 Comment

  1. Are you guys keeping track of the yellowjacket protests in France? Things are beginning to escalate in a very arab-spring sort of way, with it already spilling into a few other countries like Belgium. Situation looks like it may escalate further.

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