Early Warning for 03 December 2018 – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 03 December 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Monday, 03 December 2018.


White House

The President: Nothing significant to report.



State Department

Secretary Pompeo is in Brussels, Belgium this week in a semi-annual NATO Foreign Ministers meeting. According to a press release from the State Department, talks will include how to deepen relationships with Georgia and Ukraine.


Defense Department

Defense Secretary Mattis is scheduled to meet with India’s defense minister.


These are the last publicly reported locations of these ships. Conflict requiring an aircraft carrier/carrier strike group does not appear imminent.

The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) was last reported as having returned to port in San Diego.

The Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) was last reported as being in port at Norfolk.

The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported as being in port at Changi Naval Base, Singapore.

The Harry Truman (CVN-75) was last reported as being in the Mediterranean Sea.

The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) was last reported as being in the South China Sea, and is scheduled to make a port call in Hong Kong. (Analyst Comment: Earlier this year, the Chinese government denied a port call to another American ship.)

The George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) was last reported as having returned to port in Norfolk.


Bold indicates significant changes to last reported location or other amplifying information.



Significant House Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

* Only events pertinent to national security are listed. Significant reporting will appear in this week’s Strategic and National Intelligence reports.



Over the weekend, President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping met in Argentina and came to an agreement over two things. The first is that the Chinese will label fentanyl, a highly addictive opioid contributing to a national crisis, as a controlled substance. It means that the Chinese may actually work towards preventing the manufacture and distribution of the drug into the United States. The second agreement is ‘non-escalation’ in the trade war. That means no increases in tariffs for 90 days while a negotiation framework can be developed by both sides to bring an end to the trade war. As a part of that agreement, China reportedly will increase its purchases of U.S. agricultural products, in addition to other steps to promote cooperation between the U.S. and China.


What I’m Looking at this Morning

Comey and House Republicans agree to private testimony

Bernie Sanders preparing for ‘bigger 2020’ presidential run

Mattis: Cutting defense spending won’t help budget deficit

Rocket and air defense equipment added to Army’s inventory in Europe


Notable Quotable

“The Trump administration is preparing to make another attempt at honoring one of the biggest unfulfilled promises of the president’s election campaign: a $1 trillion upgrade of the nation’s road, rail and energy infrastructure.” – Ted Mann, writing for WSJ [source]

Mike Shelby is a former military intelligence NCO and contract intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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