Early Warning for 03 August 2018 – Forward Observer Shop

Early Warning for 03 August 2018

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Friday, 03 August 2018. (All times Eastern.)


EARLY WARNING: On Saturday, 04 August, Portland will be the host of a Patriot Prayer freedom march attended by right wing groups and, I’m told, white nationalist and other groups who were not invited. The rally will also be counterdemonstrated by hundreds of antifacists. During the last march, Patriot Prayer was out-numbered around two to one. This weekend’s rally is getting more publicity and numerous antifa outlets have published an “all call” to encourage maximum participation. I think they’ll get it.

So, of course, violence is inevitable as rhetoric on both sides is devolving into what could cause a legitimate riot tomorrow. There are likely to be armed individuals on both sides of the event, along with a large police presence with the unenviable job of being stuck in the middle.

I’m concerned that this could be the most violent rally yet, leading me to believe that the city government and police will cancel the event and try to disperse the attendees. What happens next is anyone’s guess, but you’ll be seeing this on the news tomorrow and into next week. I expect violence and numerous arrests.


White House

The President has no publicly scheduled events today.

State Department

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is traveling to Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia from 01-05 August. This weekend, the annual Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) ministerial meetings take place in Singapore. Topics of discussion will include economic security and the Indo-Pacific Strategy to counter China’s aspiring dominance of the region.

Defense Department

Defense Secretary Mattis has no public events scheduled for today.

The Carl Vinson (CVN-70) was last reported in the Hawaii Area of Operations (RIMPAC 2018).

The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported in the eastern Pacific.

The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) was last reported at port in Yokosuka, Japan.

Conflict requiring a Carrier Strike Group does not appear imminent.


Significant House Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

Significant Senate Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

* Reporting will appear in the Strategic Intelligence Summary or National Intelligence Bulletin.


– Saying that Trump’s tariffs won’t work, Chinese officials today said that they were considering additional tariffs, as well. “China has been fully prepared and will have to retaliate to defend national dignity and the people’s interests,” said the Commerce Ministry.

– Whenever new jobs numbers come out, I keep going back to the statistically correlated trough in unemployment and the beginning of the recession. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate is at 3.9 percent, down from 4 percent last month, but the labor participation rate for prime-age workers is still lower than it was in 2008. Historically, four months is all that’s between the bottom of the unemployment rate and the beginning of a recession, but the question is whether or not unemployment has more room to drop.



The National Hurricane Center reports that tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Drought conditions persist across much of the Southwest.


What I’m Looking at this Morning

U.S. Intel warns of ‘pervasive’ Russian efforts to disrupt 2018 election

U.S. watches Iranian warships gather at Strait of Hormuz

Sweden to purchase U.S.-made Patriot missile systems

Notable Quotable

“I don’t know anybody in the intelligence national security realms who takes what Rand Paul says seriously.” – Former CIA Director John Brennan


Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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