Early Warning for 03 April 2019

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Wednesday, 03 April 2019.

 

Politics & Governance

Much ado: After President Trump said that the 2020 election would be a referendum on healthcare, Republicans will delay any healthcare reform plans until after the election. Senate Republicans especially pushed back against President Trump’s last-minute plan to pursue healthcare reform, citing the inability to agree on reforms with House Democrats.

According to a new poll from left-wing Public Policy Polling, some 57 percent of respondents support replacing the Electoral College with a national popular vote. And 53 support automatic voter registration. [source] These two policies would heavily favor Democrats in future elections.

John Kasich, former Ohio governor and potential 2020 challenger to President Trump, formed a new political group named Two Paths America. Kasich has also formed an advisory committee reportedly looking into a 2020 run, either as a Republican or Independent.

Several news outlets are reporting this morning that Trump advisors are warning the president that the economy will slow if he shuts down the border with Mexico. Farmers and auto manufacturers would be among the most negatively impacted. One possible way forward for the Trump administration is to close the border to cars, whiling allowing commercial trucks through.

 

Far Left Daily

“My worry is that the next time the Republicans are in power, they will do the same thing.” – Sen. Bernie Sanders on what could happen if the Democrats pursue a court packing scheme

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) “has done a whole bunch of unpatriotic things, has really been a force for polarization in this nation… History will not be kind to him.” – Former attorney general Eric Holder

Trump supporters are “cowards… [and] they will be judged harshly.” – DNC chairman Tom Perez

“We need a young and vibrant workforce. And if we’re not careful, if we don’t get this right, in 20 or 30 years this nation is going to be begging for immigrants to come to this country.” – Julian Castro, Democratic presidential candidate

“One thing is certain, it’s time to fix our immigration system and provide a pathway to citizenship. This is one of the most important issues our country faces and Texas is on the front lines of this issue.” – Cristina Tzintzun Ramirez, executive director of Hispanic voter outreach organization Jolt Texas


 

Economy/Finance

According to a study by the World Inequality Database, half of Americans have a negative net worth, as reported by the New York Times this morning. The wealthiest one percent, as the story has been for decades, continue to growth their net worth. Is this serious? Well, it’s becoming more serious. Wealth and income inequality drives social unrest around the world. I’m no so much concerned over economic unrest right now, largely because the economy is perceived to be in good shape. But there are two major hurdles where social unrest will likely be inflamed. First, whenever the next recession hits — perhaps in 2020 or 2021, maybe sooner, maybe later; no one yet knows — we should expect increased agitation, especially for political reasons. And second, when the effects of automation and job loss are appreciably felt by up to millions of workers, we could easily see a movement similar to the Occupy Wall Street protests — but this time against corporations shedding jobs in favor of artificial intelligence and robotics.

Meanwhile: the Democratic Party is already making its solution to wealth inequality known by its many calls for wealth redistribution. A new plan by Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR) would force investors to pay capital gains taxes at the regular income tax rate (instead of the lower cap gains rate). The plan would also require investors to pay capital gains taxes on the unrealized gains of their investments each year. In other words, under this plan, Americans would be forced to pay capital gains taxes each year based on their investments’ current value, regardless of whether they’ve sold and actually made any capital gains.

Considering the coming fiscal tsunami of $183 trillion over the next 30 years, Americans should absolutely be prepared to face higher taxes. Taxes alone will not solve this problem, but higher and more creative taxation is certain to be part of the government’s solution.


 

Strategic/Defense Situational Awareness

NATO: Chinese 5G is dangerous but probably inevitable for Europe

U.S. and Philippines working on rocket solution to counter China

South Korea ‘building capability up,’ not scaling back


 

Notable Quotable

“If you don’t support [Republican healthcare reforms], you have no chance of winning. The Republican Party will be the champion of preexisting conditions … not only for politics, it’s also the right thing… I will be asking that this be my first vote immediately after the election.” – President Trump, speaking at the NRCC last night

Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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