Early Warning for 02 April 2019

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Tuesday, 02 April 2019.


Politics & Governance

President Trump is scheduled to meet with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Other U.S. officials will attend a NATO Ministerial Policy Planners Conference today.

President Trump wants to make another hire: a “border czar” would be responsible for heading up policy and action on the border crisis. Former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who oversaw President Trump’s commission on voter fraud, is on the short list.

Axios is reporting that President Trump is ‘saving’ Judge Amy Barrett to replace Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. “I’m saving her for Ginsburg,” President Trump reportedly said last year.

Other border news: President Trump is reportedly serious about closing the border with Mexico unless the country shows appreciable efforts in dealing with the migrant crisis. (AC: Shutting down the border would likely present another crisis of its own for the Trump administration, along with numerous areas of the border region where both Americans and Mexicans travel for daily work. Plus, if you didn’t see it, there’s a story about how the U.S. avocado supply would deplete in just three weeks. Gasp.)

The Daily Beast is reporting that the Department of Homeland Security disbanded a domestic terror intelligence unit last year. As a result, “We’ve noticed [the Office of Intelligence and Analysis] has significantly reduced their production on homegrown violent extremism and domestic terrorism while those remain among the most serious terrorism threats to the homeland,” said one source. According to a statement from DHS, officials want to ensure that their work is not ‘duplicative’ of other agencies tracking domestic terrorism, and confirmed that they will provide potential threat data to appropriate agencies, regardless of the threat’s ideology. [source]

Senate Democrats today are expected to propose a constitutional amendment to abolish the Electoral College. The bill is supported by Senators Dick Durban (D-IL), Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY).

It’s another busy day on Capitol Hill. Here are some of today’s hearings that we’ll monitor:

“The State of Western Water Infrastructure and Innovation” (House Cmte on Natural Resources)

“How Climate Change Threatens U.S. National Security” (House Cmte on Foreign Affairs)

“The Rural Economy” (House Cmte on Appropriations)

“The Future of NATO” (House Cmte on Foreign Affairs)

“NATO at 70” (Senate Cmte on Foreign Relations)



Far Left Daily

“This is a perilous time for our country… The Trump administration is a walking, talking, living, breathing threat to national security, and we just have to call it out.” – Sen. Elizabeth Warren

“The crown jewel of America… is our refugee resettlement program.” – Rep. Nancy Pelosi



In the past 30 days, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow, which estimates economic growth, has risen from 0.4 percent (expectation) to 2.1 percent for Q1 2019. JP Morgan also upwardly revised their expectations to 2 percent, up from 1.5 percent. That’s an astounding increase, especially considering that the partial government shutdown, which lasted through most of January, was expected to have very detrimental effects on the economy. The change is due to better-than-expected numbers from the economy.


Strategic/Defense Situational Awareness

USS Wasp in South China Sea with large load of F-35s

U.S. to halt F-35 program for Turkey

Army multi-domain battle unit will be ‘a game changer’ in future wars

Philippines protests presence of Chinese boat ‘swarm’

China warns U.S. on F-16V sales to Taiwan


Notable Quotable

“I’m a member of the straight arm club. Pretend that I have a cold. You have a cold.” – House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s answer to a question about Joe Biden’s touchy-feely ways, saying that she doesn’t hug

Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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