Early Warning for 01 March 2019

Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Friday, 01 March 2019.

ADMIN NOTE: After reviewing last month’s survey results, I’ll be making some minor changes to this daily Early Warning report. You may have noticed that EW is hitting inboxes between 0730 and 0800 Central most mornings, Monday through Friday. Waking up early and writing this report is the absolute highlight of my day, so that’s not going to change. But I’ll be minimizing some sections that are less popular and including a new section that was widely requested. You can expect those changes next week. Thank you for all the support. – S.C.

White House

The President has no publicly scheduled events today.

Investigations: As reported yesterday, there are now a total of five Democratic House committees investigating President Trump and his associates. During this week’s testimony, former Trump attorney Michael Cohen dropped three names who might know about potential misdeeds. Wasting no time, the House Intelligence Committee announced that they’d be calling the first of those names to testify: Trump Organization Chief Financial Officer Allen Weisselberg. These investigations could last into 2020.

On Deck? Another name dropped by Michael Cohen who could be called to testify: Donald Trump, Jr. And don’t forget about Javanka — the portmanteau of Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump. President Trump is being accused of ordering officials to grant a top secret security clearance to Jared, whose clearance had already been rejected. That’s going to open up another lane of investigation.

Meanwhile: Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) has referred Michael Cohen to the Justice Department for perjury. “Looks like he lied to Congress. Again.”

State Department

Secretary Pompeo will be in Vietnam and the Philippines from 24 February to 01 March. Secretary Pompeo is scheduled meet with President Rodrigo Duterte.

Defense Department

Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan has no publicly scheduled events.

These are the last publicly reported locations of deployed carrier groups. Those not listed were last reported in port.

The John Stennis (CVN-74) was last reported as in the Gulf of Tonkin.

The Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) is forward deployed to Yokosuka, Japan.


Significant House Activity:

  • The Way Forward on Border Security (Cmte on Homeland Security)
  • Our Nations Crumbling Infrastructure & the Need for Immediate Action (Cmte on Ways and Means)

Significant Senate Activity:

  • Nothing significant to report.

* Only events pertinent to national security are listed. Significant reporting will appear in this week’s Strategic and National Intelligence reports.


URGENT: (Update) The Debt Ceiling is a major issue coming up. The Treasury is scheduled to run out of money this September, but Congress doesn’t seen interested in having the debt ceiling debate right now. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA) said that they probably won’t begin discussing the debt ceiling until the fall. According to the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Director,”Our long-term debt path is reckless and potentially dangerous for the future of our economy, but the debt limit in its current form carries unacceptable costs and risks.” In 2011, Democrats and Republicans fought over the debt ceiling, which led Standard & Poor’s to downgrade the U.S. credit rating. Politics could again influence the upcoming debate.

Far Left Daily

“Incredible to start an investigation and have six months’ worth of leads on the first day.” – MSNBC analyst Matt Miller, speaking on the fallout of the Cohen testimony

NYT: “Democrats on Thursday emphasized their intent to explore and broadcast Mr. Trump’s actions through existing investigations, believing that, lacking startling new evidence, a drawn-out gantlet of inquiries will do more damage to a president seeking re-election than a partisan impeachment that could only roil the country and energize Republicans — a thousand cuts over a swing of the ax.”- NYT reporters Fandos and Hulse

“Yes, we have unambiguous evidence that the president has committed a crime at this point, I think. Do we have unambiguous evidence he has done impeachable offenses? We’ve got a ways to go yet.” – Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY)

What I’m Looking at this Morning

White nationalism remains a problem for the military

U.S.-Russia cyber war just getting started

Notable Quotable

“We’ve got a lot in common now — I like him and he likes him. Four more years.” – Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) on President Trump

Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.


  1. The Lincoln has dropped off the deployed carrier list. With questions regarding potential US military intervention in Venezuela has it gone to port or moved south. Also, what is the status of any Marine Amphibious groups in relation to supporting possible military action?

    1. The Lincoln has moved back to their current home port in Norfolk, but will eventually move to their new homeport in San Diego. As of the last reported information, they are not currently deployed anywhere.

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