[Low Intensity Conflict Report] – 26 October 2017 – Forward Observer Shop

[Low Intensity Conflict Report] – 26 October 2017

 In Focus: Last Thursday’s Richard Spencer speech at the University of Florida began and ended with very little violence. There were a few punches thrown, lots of yelling and chanting, and nearly constant disruption of Spencer’s speech, but the event itself did not result in the violence that some feared. As we’ve seen — and has been the case with several of these types of events — when law enforcement is prepared, active, and in heavy numbers, there’s just not that much violence or rioting.

But there are two things we should note.  The first is that the event, planned and executed by white nationalist group Identity Evropa, had a glaring hole. Several Alt-Right figures were quick to point out that a few Alt-Right attendees were harassed and attacked as they left the UF facility, because the exit plan was not well coordinated. That’s something I would expect event organizers to fix in the future.

And the second is that because the exit plan was either poorly planned or not properly executed, it left some Alt-Right attendees to themselves to get back to their hotels. And in one case, that resulted in the following clash.

As best as I can tell, three Alt-Right attendees were driving across campus after the speech when they came upon a group of protestors. According to the crowd, the three men began yelling, “Heil Hitler” and some other remarks when one of the protestors bashed in the window of their vehicle. And that’s when Tyler Tenbrink (who I believe is a member of the Houston Goylers; more on that later) exited the vehicle with a firearm and shot towards the crowd. He shot a building behind them before getting back in the vehicle and speeding off. The vehicle was found and pulled over during a high risk felony stop, where the three were arrested. [source]

These three guys are from the Houston, Texas area, and I’m personally familiar with William Fears, one of the men arrested and now facing charges. Fears was doxxed by Antifa earlier this year after the May Day (International Worker’s Day) event in Austin, Texas, and I believe he’s a member of the Houston Goylers (a play on the old NFL team Houston Oilers). “Goy” is Yiddish for a non-Jewish person, and the Alt-Right group has been active in protests and other events in the central Texas area.

What was otherwise a success for Richard Spencer — because he was not shut down or driven out of the UF campus — turned sour for the Alt-Right movement after these arrests. Undoubtedly, situations like these will come up in law enforcement briefings before Alt-Right events take place, and Alt-Right members will likely be portrayed as ‘armed and dangerous’. That’s going to change the calculus for law enforcement agencies providing security at Alt-Right events, and may damage what has generally been a neutral presence.

Priority Intelligence Requirements

  • PIR1: What indicators describe the Alt-Left movement’s strength, sentiment, and capabilities?
  • PIR2: What indicators describe the Alt-Right movement’s strength, sentiment, and capabilities?
  • PIR3: What are the new indicators of future politically-related violence?
  • PIR4: What is the current threat index score for the Alt-Left movement?
  • Alt-Left Roll-Up

PIR1: What indicators describe the Alt-Left movement’s strength, capabilities, sentiment, initiatives, and infighting?

Antifascists leak Alt-Right OPORD from UF (Capabilities/Initiatives)

Following a string of embarrassing leaks from Alt-Right groups (outlined below), Antifa International has leaked the Operation Order (OPORD) for Richard Spencer’s University of Florida speech. Alt-Right groups Patriot Front and Identity Evropa took part in organizing and planning. Although it’s not been confirmed how Antifa International obtained the document, Alt-Right sources have confirmed to me that it’s real. [DOWNLOAD]

(Analyst Comment: Previous leaks confirm that current Alt-Right channels of online dissemination have been penetrated by Antifa activists. Typically low level group chats, those chat rooms are likely to have had several lurkers siphoning off information. But this document, which is labeled “SEKRIT” or secret, was circulated by the National Policy Institute and used by Richard Spencer’s own inner circle. I asked numerous sources for additional information, however, it’s not known whether the document was obtained through a human intelligence source, electronic means such as hacking an email account, or whether it was simply discovered on an Alt-Right website server where the document was unprotected. This document may have initially been leaked prior to the UF speech, which indicates serious security gaps for the NPI and Richard Spencer. I’ll address the contents of the document itself in PIR 2.)


Unicorn Riot becoming ‘Wikileaks’ for outlet for exposing Alt-Right info (Capabilities/Initiatives)

Alt-Left website Unicorn Riot has published several communiques relating to internal planning and documents of both law enforcement and Alt-Right groups. The website operates in a similar fashion to Wikileaks, which has embarrassed and harangued the U.S. government by publishing classified information for over a decade.

Here are some recent leaks:

  • Internal law enforcement documents regarding Richard Spencer’s speech at the University of Florida [source: https://www.unicornriot.ninja/2017/florida-prepares-statewide-police-resources-defend-neo-nazi-richard-spencer/]
  • Anti-communist Discord chat server logs [source: https://www.unicornriot.ninja/2017/anticom-discord-server-shows-months-neo-nazi-incitement/]
  • Discord and Snapchat conversations regarding a Richard Spencer bodyguard [source: https://www.unicornriot.ninja/2017/richard-spencers-bodyguard-caerulus-rex-exposed-member-national-guard/]
  • Discord chat logs from Unite the Right attendees [source: https://www.unicornriot.ninja/2017/data-release-neo-nazis-plan-revenge-in-new-discord-server-after-unitetheright/]
  • Discord chat logs from regional networks of the Unite the Right rally [source: https://www.unicornriot.ninja/2017/data-release-discord-logs-expose-regional-networks-planning-unitetheright/]

Analyst Comment: Much of this has been obtained with the help of the Alt-Right’s poor security. What’s likely happened is that invites to the Discord channels were published in already compromised spaces like Facebook groups or blog comments, and then Alt-Left monitors gained access to the chat rooms. There was likely an element of social engineering by Alt-Left monitors to keep their access in Facebook groups and these Discord chat channels. Apparently the Alt-Right has no concept of operations security or compartmentalization, which is an indication of the movement’s security overall.


IGD exposes “Antifa Hunter” (Capabilities/Initiatives)

Activists via the Alt-Left website It’s Going Down doxxed an individual who they claim is responsible for doxxing numerous Antifa members. (AC: “Doxxing” refers to publishing documentation online about an individual. It often specifically refers to publishing photographs, contact details, home address, employer information, and other sensitive or personal information, for the purposes of encouraging activists to contact and harass the individual, and his or her family or employer.) “Jack ‘Pale Horse’ Corbin” used really poor online OPSEC when he contaminated his anonymous account with personally identifying information, which was eventually identified by some Alt-Left sleuths. [source: https://itsgoingdown.org/jack-corbin-antifa-hunter-exposed/]


Antifa activist’s emergency contact number exposed (Initiatives)

An Antifa activist lashed out at a local Fox News affiliate camera guy for zooming in on the activist’s arm, where an emergency contact number had been written. The activist claims that his friend, the owner of the emergency phone number, began receiving harassing and abusive texts and phone calls few seconds after the live feed aired. [source] (Analyst Comment: Activists also write down an emergency contact number on a piece of paper and put it in a pocket in case of a medical emergency.)


Antifascist protestors shut down College Republicans meeting (Tactics)

Antifascist protestors at the University of California at Santa Cruz disrupted a College Republicans meeting, shouting “fascists,” “racists,” and “white supremacists” during the meeting. One protestor published a call to action on Facebook, saying: “White Supremacist, fascist sympathizing College Republicans are having a meeting at McHenry library, room 0332.” He then encourages protestors to “reject the ‘right of assembly,’ or ‘right of free speech’ for white supremacists and fascists.” [source]

(Analyst Comment: College Republicans is not a white supremacist or fascist group, yet they and many other conservative groups are often characterized by the Left as Nazis. This is part of a dehumanizing process, which riles up Leftists to see conservatives as targets, instead of as human beings with a differing view point. This makes violence in the future much more likely.)


“Make Your Own Effigies” to combat Trump admin (Tactics/Initiatives)

Anarchist website Crimethinc published an article encouraging activists to create their own piñatas and paper maché effigies of President Trump to attack his legitimacy and authority. Expect to see plenty of Trump effigies on Refuse Fascism Day on 04 November. [source: https://crimethinc.com/2017/10/24/make-your-own-effigies-a-tactic-for-delegitimizing-authority-and-rendering-dissent-visible]

PIR2: What indicators describe the Alt-Right movement’s strength, capabilities, sentiment, initiatives, and infighting?

Alt-Right OPORD from UF (Capabilities/Initiatives)

This week, Antifa International leaked the National Policy Institute’s Operations Order (OPORD) from Richard Spencer’s speech at the University of Florida. Code named Operation Gator, the OPORD outlines the entire operation, start to finish. It also outlines those involved, addresses security, and looks professionally written. A member Richard Spencer’s protection detail is allegedly a National Guard soldier, so he may have written or provided oversight during the process.

According to the document, Operation Gator had staff sections to include a staff intelligence section, a logistics and supply team, and a recon team. It also includes a section on Essential Elements of Friendly Information (EEFI), which is a central part of operations security (OPSEC) planning.

The document doesn’t go into detail about the intelligence gathering, but it does outline some security practices. I found this to be particularly amusing:

Cell phones must have an unlock code. This code must be at least 4 numbers (AND NOT “1488”). An immense amount of intel could be gained from any lost phones that are easily unlocked.

“1488” is a reference to the “14 words” and “88,” or Heil Hilter (being the eighth letter of the alphabet, or H). The OPORD also recommended their personnel to wear body cameras.


One in four service members sees white nationalism in ranks (Strength)

A Military Times poll found that one out of every four U.S. active duty service members have experienced examples or support for white nationalism in the ranks. Breaking the poll down by race, 42 percent of non-white personnel say they’ve seen it, versus just 18 percent of whites. 30 percent of those polled said white nationalism is a “significant danger,” and 60 percent of those polled said they’d support activating the National Guard to hand civil unrest at white nationalist events. [source]


NPI sues Penn State for barring speech (Initiatives)

The Alt-Right National Policy Institute (NPI) filed suit against Penn State University for barring a request by Richard Spencer to speak on campus. [source] (Analyst Comment: So far this year, Spencer has had or threatened legal battles with Auburn University, Charlottesville, University of Florida, University of Cincinnati, and now Penn State. There may be others.)


PIR3: What are the new indicators of future politically-related violence?

28 October – TN – Shelbyville While Lives Matter Rally 10am-1pm

28 October – TN – Murfreesboro White Lives Matter Rally 1:30-4pm

30 October – NY – Mike Cernovich to speak at Columbia University

04 November – Nationwide – Refuse Fascism Day [source: https://refusefascism.org/protests-and-events/]

11 November – Communist Party USA’s National Party Building Conference [source: http://www.cpusa.org/event/national-party-building-conference/]

16-18 March 2018 – MAGACON 2018

TBD – Richard Spencer speech at University of Cincinnati


28 OCT – Alt-Left organizing to oppose this weekend’s White Lives Matter rallies

Nationalist Front and League of the South are organizing White Lives Matter rallies on Saturday, 28 October. The first will be held in Shelbyville, TN, and lasts from 10am to 1pm. Another event will be held in Murfreesboro, TN starting at 1:30pm and will last until 4pm. The events objectives are to “draw national attention to the Emanuel Samson church shooting. Foster greater unity and cohesion within our own movement. Turn the page on Charlottesville.”

Event organizer “Hunter Wallace” has learned quite a bit from the events he’s attended, which includes the Unite the Right Rally. Attendees will first meet a rally point and be “vetted for flags and attire or anything disruptive”. That means he’ll be screening for Nazi flags and any neo-Nazi paraphernalia. There’s currently a large debate about whether those things should be allowed. Wallace is a smart guy, he gets public relations, and he’ll likely ensure that outwardly Nazi symbols are not present even though a significant contingent of national socialists and Neo-Nazis are expected to appear.  [source: http://www.occidentaldissent.com/2017/10/23/revised-white-lives-matter-event-page/]

Nashville’s News Channel 5 interviewed an area antifascist who declared that area groups will shut down the rallies. Overall, the news coverage was quite sympathetic towards Antifa. [source] Antifascists from Nashville, Chattanooga, Atlanta, Louisville, Asheville (NC), and other areas are expected to show up to counter-demonstrate the event. Nashville-area Showing Up for Racial Justice (SURJ) published a counter-demonstration plan last night. [DOWNLOAD]

Meanwhile, area law enforcement agencies are taking event security very seriously, and have prepared separate locations for rally-goers and protestors. [source]

(Analyst Comment: Between the call to action posted on It’s Going Down, all the efforts being put into producing propaganda directed towards the event, and activity on social media, I’m expecting this to be another large convergence of Alt-Left groups protesting the Alt-Right groupsThe event organizers expect the presence of Antifa, and selected this location because they expect the community to be more receptive to the message. Event organizers also expect law enforcement to prevent violence. The event organizer has made it known that firearms are not allowed at the rally. Related: See the antifascist propaganda posters regarding this event.)


04 November is “Refuse Fascism Day”

UPD1: This week, Refuse Fascism released a press report claiming that New York City and San Francisco cancelled the permits for the Refuse Fascism march on 04 November. [source: https://refusefascism.org/2017/10/23/press-alert-october-23-2017-nov-4-protests-are-under-attack-by-the-alt-right-lies-threats-of-violence-denial-of-permits-refuse-fascism-demands-media-exposure-and-permits/]

UPD2: According to a somewhat cryptic message posted to the Refuse Fascism website, there may be a movement organizing to “walk out against fascism” on November 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th at 11am. This could activists are planning to walk out of schools, work, and other public places as part of the Refuse Fascism demonstration. [source: https://refusefascism.org/2017/10/22/from-brownberets-on-november-1st-2nd-3rd-and-4th-we-will-walk-out-against-fascism-at-11am/]

Newsweek and several other publications have called out “conspiracies” about the marches planned for 04 November. Several right wing websites have leveled charges that 04 November is intended to be the start of a revolution, coup, or some other widespread violent revolt. My take remains the same: 04 November is about making a political statement. It’s possible that there will be violence in the usual places: Berkeley, Portland, Seattle, New York City, and other locations where radical anarchists have a history of violence, but it’s going to fall well short of an actual revolution. Unfortunately, this event has been amplified by a number of media outlets to be a “day of revolution”, which the Alt-Left intended to be serious but not literal. Prominent Alt-Left figures are fairly clear that a violent revolution right now would fail, and that the focus needs to remain on community and collective organizing to build a mass movement. Once ‘critical mass’ is achieved, then the movement can employ violence. The goal for this event is to display just how much collective power Leftists have, and then hope for the best. Dictators have been forced out of office by mass demonstrations, and this is the near term goal for this event.

Mark Bray spoke at a University of Michigan-Flint event and mentioned 04 November. “Yeah, it’s not actually a day of action that most anti-fascist groups are participating in. I believe the call was launched by ‘RefuseFascism’, which is linked to the Revolutionary Communist Party. They don’t reflect the entirety of the movement and I think it has been really way blown out of proportion by the far right.” [source]


“Fight back against Trump November 4th”

According to a group calling themselves Insurrectionary Youth Action, on 04 November there will be an Antifa/black bloc counter-demonstration to protest the protesters of the Refuse Fascism march in at City Hall in Seattle, WA. See poster below.


Richard Spencer to speak at University of Cincinnati

On 13 October, University of Cincinnati president announced his decision to allow Richard Spencer to speak on campus. The president diverted from policies at other universities, saying that he stood with students and faculty who decided to protest the appearance. “At other public universities, presidents have asked their constituents to steer clear of such events… Frankly, if or how you engage with Spencer’s event is your decision to make, and I will respect and support whatever civil and peaceful course you take.” As of right now, the specific date is yet to be announced. [source]


PIR4: What is the current threat index score for the Alt-Left movement?

There has been no change this week in the overall threat index score for the Alt-Left movement. There’s a possibility that the threat index will increase between now and 04 November, due to a string of events that carry the potential of violence.


Alt-Left Roll-Up

NY: Columbia University republican leaders doxxed

OH: Toledo BLM leader admits to agitating while on city council

OR: Eugene Weekly papers burned in response to Antifa article

“Antifa fight club” – Haymaker Collective

81% of African Americans believe BLM movement is effective

Jamie Foxx cast as Black Panther leader in new film

National Park Service cancels project honoring Black Panther Party

Mike Shelby is a former military intelligence NCO and contract intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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