[Low Intensity Conflict Report] – 05 October 2017 – Forward Observer Shop

[Low Intensity Conflict Report] – 05 October 2017

Low Intensity Conflict Report – 05 October 2017

ADMIN NOTE: Good afternoon. Allow me welcome you to the inaugural edition of Low Intensity Conflict, a weekly look at the development of domestic conflict, revolutionary political movements, tribal violence, and other factors that disrupt our “civil” society.  Each Thursday, I’ll bring you the latest news and analysis from the front lines of the culture war, and as I look for ways in which culture is spilling over into violence. The only problems I expect to encounter is having too much information to report and not enough time to report on it.

This report will be emailed to you each Thursday, however, if you’d like to peruse the archives of our reporting, you can find that history at: https://store.forwardobserver.com/conflict. That page currently hosts some blog posts, but will increasingly be filled with subscriber-only reports and these intelligence summaries. I want to ask for your patience as we develop the Low Intensity Conflict page into a dashboard. Ultimately, we’ll have a calendar so you can keep up to date with events, and an interactive map so you can better understand the national situation. Those features are forthcoming.

Why is this intelligence summary called Low Intensity Conflict?

I decided to start this report because I believe we’re already in a “domestic conflict,” albeit a low grade one. It’s difficult for me to see the widening ideological gap, the increasing inequality (either real or perceived) and the sporadic political violence, and not arrive at or near the conclusion that we’re already here. What we’re seeing is called a low intensity conflict, hence the name of this report. (I almost hesitate to use the word “inequality” because it has such negative connotations, but whether this inequality is real or perceived is immaterial. Perception is reality, as they say, and even the perception of inequality is enough to create a grievance. Unresolved grievances invariably lead to conflict, especially when they’re exploited for political purposes, which is why this topic matters so greatly.)

FM 100-20, Military Operations in Low Intensity Conflict (1990, which I believe is no longer valid), provides us an official definition of the term:

Low intensity conflict is a political-military confrontation between… groups below conventional war and above the routine, peaceful competition… It frequently involves protracted struggles of competing principles and ideologies. Low intensity conflict ranges from subversion to the use of armed force. It is waged by a combination of means, employing political, economic, informational, and military instruments. Low intensity conflicts are often localized, generally in the Third World, but contain regional and global security implications.

In other words, low intensity conflict is marked by politicized tribes and social bases who wage irregular, small-scale wars.

The goal of this report is to identify the development of organized political violence; graduating from sporadic, opportunistic, and reactionary events into coordinated insurgent action. For me, that’s the Rubicon that differentiates politically-related violence and a small war. It may take years or it may never happen, but I’ll be here to document what happens in between. On that note, one word of caution: according to Days of Rage, a book I’ll be reviewing for you, in just 18 months in 1971 and 1972, left-wing terrorists carried out over 2,500 bombings in the U.S. Many of those perpetrators are still alive, teaching at colleges and universities and influencing a younger generation of radical activists, so it’s not unreasonable to expect the potential for that kind of violence in the future… and that’s why you’re here.

What do you mean by Alt-Right/Alt-Left?

The Alt-Right movement was spearheaded by Richard B. Spencer with the belief that white nationalism and interracial turmoil are issues that traditional conservative/GOP powers will never address. Generally, the Alt-Right opposes immigration (Spencer wants a moratorium on all non-European immigration); believes that culture has a largely racial component (i.e., Western Civilization is inherently white European, and non-Europeans don’t assimilate as well due to their race and cultural beliefs); the belief that whites are generally superior to blacks in terms of IQ and the ability to reason (Spencer and others provide crime statistics and studies on IQ as their proof); the belief that whites should have an ethnostate similar to Israel, China, and Japan, which are almost entirely homogeneous; and the belief that a white ethnostate, for all the aforementioned reasons (and many more not mentioned), would be a more peaceful, productive, and wealthy nation. Alt-Right is an umbrella term, in that it includes numerous groups and thought leaders, although it generally signifies support for white nationalism.

Just as the “Alt-Right” moniker applies to the white identitarian movement, “Alt-Left” is a term that describes the far left’s racial identitarian and revolutionary communist and anarchist movements. The Alt-Left is an umbrella term that can be applied to radical social groups generally pushing in the same direction: deposing the ‘capitalist, patriarchal, and institutionally-racist American system run by white supremacist men’. For clarification, “Alt-Left” in this report will refer to Leftist groups that subscribe to one or more of the following ideologies (which often overlap):

  • Revolutionary communist
  • Revolutionary anarchist
  • Radically socialist
  • Racially identitarian (often anti-white)
  • Belief that left-wing violence is at least sometimes appropriate or necessary

Each week, I’ll cover the Alt-Left in PIR1 and the Alt-Right in PIR2.

With that, here are my initial Priority Intelligence Requirements (PIRs).

  • PIR1: What indicators describe the Alt-Left movement’s strength, sentiment, and capabilities?
  • PIR2: What indicators describe the Alt-Right movement’s strength, sentiment, and capabilities?
  • PIR3: What are the new indicators of future politically-related violence?
  • PIR4: What is the current threat index score for the Alt-Left movement?
  • Alt-Left Roll-Up

PIR1: What indicators describe the Alt-Left movement’s strength, capabilities, sentiment, and initiatives?

“Adapt and Destroy: Counterinsurgency and Social War” (Sentiment/Initiatives)

The latest episode of sub.Media‘s Trouble series features statements about insurgency, counterinsurgency, and state repression of minorities and radical groups. It investigates a brief history of COINTELPRO, an FBI program that infiltrated and subverted leftists movements in the 1960s, but mainly focuses on how the State expands its power (e.g., War on Drugs) and how to counter those efforts. “Over the next thirty minutes, we’ll share… some of the ways that our movements can thwart these dynamics in order to challenge state legitimacy, spread treasonous thoughts, and all around just make a whole lot of trouble.” A couple of the interviewees recommend using government and military documents and manuals about counterinsurgency to better understand the doctrine being applied against radical movements. Others give advice on how to protect radical movements against state surveillance. Another points out that street battles with the Alt-Right doesn’t organize a mass movement, and intimates that active resistance doesn’t inspire action because “most people in our communities… aren’t Leftists”. Another encouraged organizing the various single-issue factions of the Leftist movements to “overthrow the entire system”. “Our task is still a revolutionary task. We have to change the society that creates fascism in the first place. We have to overthrow capitalism.” Perhaps the best advice provided is that the movement should attack the State’s legitimacy (as that’s the center of gravity in an insurgency/counterinsurgency struggle). “People are deploying new strategies, looking for new terrains of struggle and conflict,” said one interviewee.

To end this episode, the host/narrator says, “These are dangerous times which require serious reflection and committed action on the part of revolutionaries. So at this point we’d like to remind you that Trouble is intended to be watched in groups, and to be used as a resource to promote discussion and collective organizing. Think that anarchists and other anti-capitalists in your town need to start upping their game? Consider getting together with some comrades, screening this film, and discussing what steps you can take to collectively prepare yourselves to better anticipate and resist state strategies of repression and recuperation.” [source: https://sub.media/c/trouble/]

Louder with Crowder infiltrates Antifa group (Capabilities/Sentiment)

Conservative talk show host Steven Crowder has a good video of one of his employees infiltrating an Antifa group, who captures on film Antifa members bragging about their weapons arsenals and wanting to commit violence. Video below:

This week on We Rebel: Public Banking (Initiative)

On this week’s episode of We Rebel (podcast), Phoenix Goodman, co-founder of Divest LA and Revolution LA, spoke about public vs. private banking, among other topics. His argument, one that’s been adopted by the Alt-Left, is that private banks should be abolished in favor of public banks. He argues that public banks run by states and municipalities would be better for the economy because the public banks could use the loan interest to finance public development projects. He cites the Bank of North Dakota, the only state-run bank in the U.S., and describes public banking as a more economically and ethical solution to finance, as opposed to feeding interest payments to Wall Street banks. Divest LA’s goal is to get the Los Angeles city government to divest their money from Wells Fargo, a bank that backed the Dakota Access Pipeline, and into public banks. (The City of Seattle divested from Wells Fargo earlier this year to the tune of $3bn annually.)  [source]

Revolution LA has a 13-point agenda, which includes:

  1. Dismantle the Military-Industrial Complex
  2. Public Ownership of Banks
  3. Education Revolution (education is a human right)
  4. Green New Deal / Nationalize Fossil Fuel Industries
  5. Guaranteed Living Wage / Right to Employment
  6. Strengthen Labor Power and Worker Co-Ops
  7. Universal Publicly Funded Healthcare
  8. End Globalization / Repeal NAFTA, TPP, and International Free Trade Agreeements
  9. Restructure the Agriculture Industry (end corporate farming)
  10. Inheritance Cap for the Super-Rich
  11. Transparent and Open Government
  12. End Police Brutality, Private Prisons, and the War on Drugs
  13. Universal Human Rights [source]


PIR2: What indicators describe the Alt-Right movement’s strength, capabilities, sentiment, and initiatives?

League of the South, Nationalist Front to rally in Shelbyville, TN on 28 October (Strength/Sentiment)

The League of the South, Nationalist Front, and other Alt-Right groups will hold a rally in Shelbyville, TN on 28 October to protest U.S. immigration policies and the lack of coverage of the Antioch church shooting. After citing a string of violence perpetrated by refugees in America and Europe, organizers hope to bring attention to the problem of refugees and immigrants to the people of Middle Tennessee. The goal is to “foster cohesion within our movement, to move beyond Charlottesville and to draw attention to the Emanuel Samson church shooting. We’re a lightning rod so if nothing else going to Middle Tennessee will force the issue into the public square.” Overall, it’s part of a larger effort to bring awareness to affected communities in the rural south. It should be noted that Swastika flags will not be allowed at this event. (Analyst Comment: Shelbyville, TN is between Nashville and Chattanooga, both of which have Antifa chapters. Therefore, this event is also filed under PIR3.)  [source: http://www.occidentaldissent.com/2017/10/04/nationalist-front-to-host-white-lives-matter-rally-in-middle-tennessee/]

Identity Evropa banner drop in Atlanta, GA (Strength/Initiatives)

Members of Identity Evropa (pronounced ‘Europa’), a youth-oriented, pro-white organization, unfurled a banner on an Atlanta, GA bypass last week, in a string of coordinated activities across the nation. The banner read “Defend American Workers – End DACA Now” referring to Deferred Action for Children Arrivals. Identity Evropa has coordinated a very active information operations campaign targeting white students as universities. Recent “Project Siege” activities have included the University of Washington, University of Alabama, University of Texas (Austin), California State University (Channel Islands), North Colorado, Middle Tennessee State, James Madison, and other schools. [source: https://www.identityevropa.com/action-report/ga-banner-drop]

PIR3: What are the new indicators of future politically-related violence?

09 October is “Deface Columbus” Day

Leading with the Twitter hashag “#FuckColumbusDay”, the Revolutionary Abolitionist Movement is planning to vandalize statues of Columbus, and presumably other items named after Columbus, on 09 October. A pronouncement on Insurrection News reads:

White nationalist statues are crumbling all over the US as our collective revolutionary power is growing. As the monuments of white supremacist society fall we must continue to make it clear that their reign of terror is coming to an end.

For the occasion of Columbus Day, October 9th, one of the most vile ‘holidays’ of the year, the Revolutionary Abolitionist Movement is calling for collectives all over the country to take action against this day and in support of indigenous people in the US and abroad who have been victims of colonialism and genocide.

We are calling for groups to “decorate” their neighborhoods as they see fit: put up murals, wheatpaste posters, drop a banner, etc.

[source: https://insurrectionnewsworldwide.com/2017/09/22/usa-a-call-to-action-deface-columbus-day-october-9th-2017/]

(Analyst Comment: “Wheatpasting” involves using flour and water as an adhesive to put up posters or flyers. Because this event has garnered traction and a fair amount of pres coverage, I would expect increased police presence around Columbus statues and street signs. Expect activists to target Columbus statues well before and after Columbus Day.)

Philly Antifa organizes counter-demonstration against “Leif Erickson Day”

Alt-Right group Keystone United plans to hold their annual Leif Erickson Day on 09 October. Philly Antifa is organizing a counter-demonstration. [source: https://itsgoingdown.org/philadelphia-pa-anti-racist-mobilization-leif-erickson-day/ and Facebook Event Page]


Alt-Right leader Richard Spencer to speak at University of Florida

Richard Spencer originally scheduled his Fall campus tour to begin last month, but a series of hurricanes delayed that plan. Last week, Spencer announced that he will begin his tour on October 19th at the University of Florida in Gainesville. Immediately, Alt-Left organizers began developing a counter-demonstration. Earlier this week, Alt-Left website It’s Going Down published a call to arms. “Our aim is a broad mobilization in solidarity with UF students and Gainesville residents, against white nationalist organizing. Organizations should make travel plans for Gainesville right now.” [source: https://itsgoingdown.org/call-to-oppose-richard-spencer-october-19th-gainsville/]


League of the South, Nationalist Front rally could be an attractive target for Antifa counterdemo

The League of the South, Nationalist Front, and other Alt-Right groups will hold a rally in Shelbyville, TN on 28 October to protest U.S. immigration policies and the lack of coverage of the Antioch church shooting. (Analyst Comment: Shelbyville, TN is in between Nashville and Chattanooga, both of which have Antifa chapters. The event organizers expect the presence of Antifa, however, selected this location because they expect law enforcement to prevent violence. Still, an Antifa counter-demonstration seems like an appropriate expectation.)  [source: http://www.occidentaldissent.com/2017/10/04/nationalist-front-to-host-white-lives-matter-rally-in-middle-tennessee/]


04 November is Refuse Fascism Day

As has been paraded around the internet the past two weeks, there are planned marches and protests against the Trump administration on Saturday, 04 November. In late September, communist activists from Refuse Fascism, a front website for the Revolutionary Communist Party, blocked traffic on Highway 101 in California and held signs that read “NOV 4 IT BEGINS”. This is not intended to be just an Alt-Left event, but all who are opposed to the Trump administration are invited to be involved.

(Analyst Comment: Unfortunately, this event has been amplified by a number of media outlets to be a “day of revolution”, which was intended by the Alt-Left to be serious but not literal. Prominent Alt-Left figures are fairly clear that a violent revolution right now would fail, and that the focus needs to remain on community and collective organizing to build a mass movement. Once ‘critical mass’ is achieved, then the movement can employ violence. The goal for this event is to display just how much collective power Leftists have, and then hope for the best. Dictators have been forced out of office by mass demonstrations, and this is the near term goal for this event. We’ll continue to track developments as it’s still nearly a month away. The “indictments” against the Trump administration can be found here: [https://refusefascism.org/what-the-trumppence-regime-has-done-and-says-they-will-do/]. Flyers, posters, banners, and other propaganda can be found here: [https://refusefascism.org/flyers-posters-banners-graphics-2/])

PIR4: What is the current threat index score for the Alt-Left movement?

Introduction: PIR4 is our indicator system. There are 20 indicators, which may be refined over time. I’ll be unveiling those in the near future, but for now here’s the most recent early warning/indicator summary, which will appear each week at the top of this report.


Alt-Left Roll-Up

AL: Birmingham elects progressive mayor

CA: Black Panthers hand out hygiene items to San Diego’s homeless

CA: Harvard-based “Resistance School” expanding to UC Berkeley campus

GA: “Georgia Tech is trying to repress activists; here’s how to resist” [source: https://itsgoingdown.org/georgia-tech-trying-repress-activists-heres-resist/]

FL: Organizing for Action to sponsor movie screening in Pensacola on 07 Oct

LA: Judge intends to dismiss second lawsuit against BLM

MA: Harvard University hosts “Speech, Fascism and the University as Battleground” [source:https://refusefascism.org/2017/10/05/freedom-is-not-free-speech-fascism-and-the-university-as-battleground/]

MO: DOJ redacts 87% of FOIA report about 2014 shooting of Michael Brown

MO: BLM protestors block traffic, 143 taken into custody

MO: Police overtime costs mounting as protests continue in St. Louis

NJ: Protest against “Unsafe Space” tour at Rutgers University

PA: October 21st March against IACP and #Abolition Weekend [source: https://itsgoingdown.org/philadelphia-pa-october-21st-march-iacp-abolitionweekend/]

PA: BLM protests Philadelphia Fraternal Order of Police fundraiser

VA: Virginia Tech report back [source: https://itsgoingdown.org/reportback-929-disruption-virginia-tech-state-university-address/]

VA: BLM protestors shut down ACLU speaker at William & Mary

Sen. Rubio asks Army to remove communist officer

ABC to air Larry Wilmore comedy “Black Don’t Crack”

Movie about Black Panther leader in the works



Mike Shelby is a former military intelligence NCO and contract intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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