136: The Overton Window, Stefan’s Black Pill, and Networks (Forward Observer Radio) – Forward Observer Shop

136: The Overton Window, Stefan’s Black Pill, and Networks (Forward Observer Radio)

On today’s show, I’m talking about our Early Warning emails, the Overton Window and how it pertains to the Second Amendment (Repeal the NFA), about a Stefan Molyneux video that paints a particularly bleak picture of America’s future, and finally about networks and how they operate.

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Stefon Molyneux YouTube

Stefon’s Blackpill video

READING NOW: The Square and the Tower: Networks and Power, from Freemasons to Facebook

READING NEXT: Political Tribes: Group Instinct and the Fate of Nations




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Strategic Intelligence



Partial Transcript

Rising and unsustainable national debt, expanding government authority and the continued loss of individual liberty, the militarization of police, the rise of cultural and economic Marxism, the risk of war with Russia and China, the risk of systems disruption via cyber and financial vulnerabilities — there were lot of things going on that greatly concerned me. And the question I ask is, has any of this really changed in two years?

If nothing else, many of these things are actually worse today and, despite our best hopes and optimism, the trend is set to continue. It’s very conceivable that in another two years, this country is much worse off. An economic recession, a major war, a major cyber attack, an increase in political violence — all these things have a growing likelihood.

For about the past year, I’ve been trying out different things to see what works and what doesn’t. Can I do a daily radio show? Can we do a daily Alt-Observer report? Can I do a daily Early Warning report, so forth and so on. And I’m working with a guy right now who’s really helping me refine what we’re going to do in the future. That includes cutting out a lot of unhelpful stuff and replacing it a lot of very helpful stuff, so let me tell you what’s going on with Early Warning.

At a meeting yesterday, we brainstormed about how we could best serve our readers in light of what’s probably going to happen in the future. Ultimately, we decided that I need to start writing again about intelligence, security, and defense for community and disaster preparedness planning. That’s something unique that I’ve done, and I gotten away from teaching that stuff while I’ve been chasing my tail with this daily intelligence stuff. So the plan is that I get back to what I like doing best and what’s most helpful to our audience — which is me teaching intelligence that can be used when the proverbial s hits the fan. We’re still going to produce the Strategic and National Intelligence summaries each week, those aren’t going away because there’s a ton of valuable information in there. But instead of doing the Early Warning and then trying to write posts on news items and other stuff, and then editing what my other guys are trying to publish, I’m instead going to write one blog post a day. And I promise, you’ll be getting my best.

If you followed my old blog Guerrillamerica from 2011-2015, then you’re already familiar with the kinds of things I write about: intelligence collection and analysis, reducing uncertainty and navigating an uncertain future, how to build resiliency and security at the community level, and what warfighting will look like during an irregular conflict, like the one I believe we’re heading towards. So in lieu of the daily Early Warning report and some other stuff, I’m going to spend my early morning time on something that’s way more valuable, which is teaching these skills and concepts so you can use them in your everyday preparedness planning.

Starting on Monday, April 2nd, I’ll be blogging again about do-it-yourself community security, intelligence collection, how to break down local threats, how to understand your local ‘operating environment’, and how to get the ball rolling on reducing uncertainty about, frankly, a very uncertain future. We’re going to start seeing the effects, one way or the other, beginning with November’s 2018 mid-terms, now just eight months away. In Monday’s post, I’ll include my thoughts as to what we might expect.

If you’re concerned about the risk of systems disruption, a repeat of the 2008 recession (with 2018’s toxic political climate), the risk of political instability and, well, tyranny, growing crime, civil unrest, or a domestic conflict, then I’d be honored to pass along some of the skills, concepts, and knowledge I’ve gained since I first enlisted in 2004, because we’re going to need those things and a whole lot more for what I suspect will happen in the future. I spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan in intelligence missions, and I really enjoy teaching and talking about how to best be prepared for future challenges.If you want to read these posts, they’ll be available on shop.forwardobserver.com. If you want to get them by email, then I’ll put a link in the show notes where you can sign up.

When I come back from the break, I’ll be talking more about the Second Amendment and the Overton window, and then we’ll get into some Human Intelligence stuff.  I’ll be right back.

Let’s talk a bit about the Overton Window…

Left expanded the window so far that what was mainstream American thought 20 years ago is today right wing extremism. We go back…

Now’s not the time to defend the Second Amendment… expand.

A friend of mine posted this video to Facebook, and I knew that I had to share it with you. I’ll play the audio in just a sec, but it’s from Stefan Molyneux. He, like Jordan Peterson, has been a huge influence on me, just as much as Rush Limbaugh was starting in middle school, and then Ron Paul about a decade ago — which is to say, a major influence on my thinking.

Stefan has a YouTube channel where he reaches millions of people, and delivers arguments in ways that, I believe, are beyond refute. He’s a philosopher, a clearly very wise man, and while I don’t agree with 100% of what he says in this video, it’s still so important that it needs to be shared. It needs to be listened to or watched, his message needs to be internalized, and then his message needs to inspire some action. Here it is:


That’s quite a blackpill to swallow. If Stefan is correct, then 2018 is going to be remembered as the last bright year in the history of America, and whether or not that’s the case, we truly are living in an historic time. On Monday’s show I’m going to talk about how important this next census is, and why it matters, and how it could change the political landscape of the United States. If we lose that census battle, and Trump is a one-term president like Stefan is saying, and the Democrats pass amnesty, creating millions of new voters virtually overnight, and 10-30 million over the course of a decade, then we can kiss this country as we know it goodbye. And we need to be prepared for the conflict and the, hopefully, Balkanization that’s bound to happen afterwards. And that’s another big reason why I’m going to focus again on teaching and training, because we have a lot of work to do.

Now let’s get into the Square and the Tower, and talk a bit about Human Intelligence…

Ferguson writes that in 1967, famed social psychologist Stanley Milgram — yes, that Milgram, although this is a different experiment — wanted to see how connected one average member of society was to another. He sent out letters randomly to residents of Wichita, Kansas and Omaha, Nebraska, who were asked to forward the letter to someone who might know either the wife of a Harvard divinity student or a particular stock broker in Boston. Then after forwarding the letter, they were asked to send Milgram a “tracer” postcard, with additional information about the next recipient.

And 44 of the original 160 letters mailed from Omaha, Nebraska reached the final recipient. Milgram’s tracer postcards showed, on average, that it took five total recipients of the letter from start to finish.

Now you’ve probably heard of the Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon, the game where you have to link one actor or actress to Kevin Bacon through a series of movies co-starring the linking actors.

And this passage of the book discussing this Milgram experiment reminded me of HUMINT — the collection of intelligence information from human sources.

We should all know what an intelligence requirement is — maybe if you just started listening to the show, you don’t, and in that case it’s a question or statement describing something we don’t know but should. For instance, how many MS-13 gang members are in my county, or where are the nearest medial professionals who live in the area?

Six degrees…




Mike Shelby is a former military intelligence NCO and contract intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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