03 MAR 17 – Executive Intelligence Summary

EXECUTIVE INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 03 March 2017 🔒

[wcm_nonmember]In this EXSUM… (2604 words)

  • Pentagon: Expect drone swarm attacks in the near future
  • Russia & China SITREP
  • Defense in Brief
  • Political violence roll-up
  • Bank of America warns of market’s “great fall”
  • Beware the Ides of March:  Stockman warns “everything will grind of a halt”
  • And more…

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Bottom Line Up Front:  On Saturday, 04 March, supporters of President Trump will be hosting March4Trump rallies across the country (known locations listed below the Twitter reports).  In anticipation of those protests, I’ve run reports on the Twitter accounts of 28 Antifa groups.  There are countless other individual accounts associated with the Antifa Movement, and we’ll be cataloguing those accounts for a later project.  If you’re in an area where political violence or civil unrest is likely, I highly encourage you to do a little investigating.  Many of these events are found on Facebook and Twitter, and social media posts can be a great source of real-time information.  We’re working on building a database of social media accounts which are involved in or report political violence.  If you see a Twitter handle, please pass it on.  You can do a keyword search for “antifa” and your city without registering for a Twitter account here: https://twitter.com/search-home

On a separate note: I’ll be attending the March4Trump rally in Austin tomorrow.  If you go to one of these events, please do me a solid…  Take notes (or video/photographic evidence) of the Left’s tactics.  That would include everything from style of dress, to activities and equipment (basically a SALUTE report).  If you’ll report that information to me, then I’ll compile it into a single document of observed Leftist tactics, and we can just keep adding to it as we read about or observe other cases of political violence and/or civil unrest.

Here are the reports I ran this week.  Not all of these accounts are actively posting, but they do exist.  If you identify an Antifa Movement account on Twitter, please let me know.  I’d be happy to run a report similar to the ones posted below, so you can have the “reporting history” of the account.  (Also, if you could just download the reports that are relevant to you, and refrain from downloading them all, then you’d really help me save on bandwidth costs.)

Antifa Alabama, AL

Antifa Phoenix, AZ

Rocky Mountain Antifa, CO

Daytona Antifa, FL

Orlando Antifa, FL

Tally Antifa, FL

Antifa in Altanta, GA

Iowa Antifa, IA

Indiana Antifa, IN

KC Antifascists, MO

Montana Antifa, MT

Asheville Antifa, NC

Lincoln Antifacists, NE

North NJ Antifa, NJ

Cleveland Antifa, OH

Columbus Antifa, OH

Coos Antifa, OR

Eugene Antifa, OR

Rose City Antifa-Portland, OR

Upstate Antifa, SC

Antifa Knoxville, TN

Nashville DSA, TN

Antifa Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

ASH Antifa Richmond, VA

U District Antifa-Seattle, WA

Seattle Antifa, WA

Kenorac Antifa, WI

 

 

March4Trump Locations

PHOENIX, ARIZONA – 12:00 PM MST
Arizona State Capitol Building
1700 West Washington Street
Phoenix, AZ 85007
Facebook GroupEventBrite Page

BERKELEY, CALIFORNIA – 2:00 PM PST
City Hall (MLK Civic Center Park)
2151 MLK Jr. Way
Berkeley, CA 94704

SAN DIEGO/OCEANSIDE, CALIFORNIA – 9:00 AM PST
Junior Seau Pier Amphitheatre
200 S The Strand
Oceanside, California 92054

DENVER, COLORADO – 10:00 AM MST
Colorado State Capitol Building (West Steps)
200 E Colfax Avenue
Denver, CO 80203

ORLANDO, FLORIDA – 12:00 PM EST
Lake Eola Park
512 E Washington Street
Orlando, FL 32801-1941
Facebook Group

PALM BEACH, FLORIDA – 1:00 PM EST
Mar-a-Lago
1100 S Ocean Boulevard
Palm Beach, Florida 33480
Facebook Group

TALLAHASSEE, FLORIDA – 2:00 PM EST
Florida State Capitol Building
400 South Monroe Street
Tallahassee, FL 32301

BLOOMINGDALE, GEORGIA – 12:00 PM EST
Ottawa Farms (20 minutes west of Savannah on I-16)
702 Bloomingdale Road
Bloomingdale, GA 31302
Contact Information

FORT WAYNE, INDIANA – 2:00 PM EST
Courtyard by Marriott Downtown
1150 Harrison Street
Fort Wayne, IN 46802

FRANKFORT, KENTUCKY – 12:00 PM EST
Kentucky State Capitol Building
700 Capital Avenue
Frankfort, KY 40601

AUGUSTA, MAINE – 12:00 PM EST
Shaw’s Capitol Shopping Center (marching down the hill to the Capitol Building)
150 Western Avenue
Augusta, ME 04330

PORTLAND, MAINE – 12:00 PM EST
Monument Square
456 Congress Street
Portland, Maine 04101
Facebook Group

BAY CITY, MICHIGAN – 12:00 PM EST
Applebee’s Restaurant
3500 Wilder Road
Bay City, MI 48706

GRAND RAPIDS, MICHIGAN – 12:00 PM EST
Calder Plaza
250 Monroe Avenue NW #50
Grand Rapids, MI 49503
Facebook Group

LANSING, MICHIGAN – 12:00 PM EST
Michigan State Capitol Building
100 N Capitol Avenue
Lansing, MI 48933

ST. PAUL, MINNESOTA – 12:00 PM CST
Minnesota State Capitol Building
75 Rev Dr Martin Luther King Jr Boulevard
Saint Paul, Minnesota 55155
Facebook Group

JEFFERSON CITY, MISSOURI – 1:00 PM CST
Missouri State Capitol (Meet on South Lawn)
201 W Capitol Avenue
Jefferson City, MO 65101

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – 12:00 PM PST
Trump International Hotel
2000 N Fashion Show Drive
Las Vegas, NV 89109

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – 12:00 PM EST
Trump Tower
725 5th Avenue
New York, NY 10022

RALEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA – 12:00 PM EST
Halifax Mall
16 W Jones Street
Raleigh, NC 27601

CLEVELAND, OHIO – 12:00 PM EST
Voinovich Bicentennial Park
E 9th Street Pier
Cleveland, Ohio 44114
Facebook Group

COLUMBUS, OHIO – 12:00 PM EST
Ohio State Capitol Building
1 Capitol Square
Columbus, OH 43215

LAKE OSWEGO, OREGON – 12:00 PM PST
George Rogers Park
611 S State Street
Lake Oswego, OR 97034

OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA – 1:00 PM CST
Oklahoma State Capitol Building
2300 N Lincoln Boulevard
Oklahoma City, OK 73105

ERIE, PENNSYLVANIA – 12:00 PM EST
Perry Square Park
536 State Street
Erie, PA 16501
Facebook Group

COLUMBIA, SOUTH CAROLINA – 12:00 PM EST
South Carolina State Capitol Building
1100 Gervais Street
Columbia, SC 29201

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – 1:00 PM CST
Legislative Plaza
301 6th Avenue N
Nashville, Tennessee 37243
Facebook Group

AUSTIN, TEXAS – 1:00 PM CST
Texas State Capitol Building
1100 Congress Avenue
Austin, TX 78701

VIRGINIA BEACH, VIRGINIA – 12:00 PM EST
Mt. Trashmore Park
310 Edwin Drive
Virginia Beach, VA 23462

 

Priority Intelligence Requirements:

PIR1: What are the current indicators of systems disruption or instability that could lead to civil unrest or violence?

PIR2: What are the current indicators of an outbreak of global conflict?

PIR3: What are the current indicators of organized political violence?

PIR4: What are the current indicators of economic, financial, or monetary instability?


PIR1: What are the current indicators of systems disruption or instability that could lead to civil unrest or violence?

Pentagon: Expect drone swarm attacks in the near future

“It is conceivable that some day soon we will see someone’s otherwise capable military security force penetrated, defeated or even overrun by such [drone swarm] technologies,” Lt. Gen. Michael Nagata, director of Strategic and Operational Planning at the National Counterterrorism Center.  “We need to remember that aerial vehicles are not the only rapidly growing capability when it comes to robotics. Ask yourself what could a robot the size of a penny that can cut through computer cables do to a command control room?”  Drone attacks have already been successful by the Islamic State in Mosul, Iraq.  Drones offer a cost-effective solution to target high tech and very expensive military vehicles and facilities.  “The question is no longer will somebody be able to do such things some day? Or how do we stop this from happening in the future? I would argue this is something we need to be asking ourselves right now.” (SOURCE)

 

PIR2: What are the current indicators of an outbreak of global conflict?

The prospects of global conflict continue to revolve around the usual players: Russia, China, and the Middle East. The ways in which global conflict could cause or contribute to a SHTF scenario in America are myriad and they largely depend on which conflict is initiated. We’re certainly at risk of cyber attack in the event of conflict in any of the three regions. Systems disruption, like the price and availability of fuel, is also a top concern that could cause a SHTF event.

NATO-Russia SITREP

This week, NATO and Russian military officials held their first talks since 2014, and it appears that normal discussions will resume since NATO froze communications with Russia nearly three years ago.  Russian officials informed NATO of their planned military exercises for 2017, and they expect these talks to continue.  The Russians brought up their concerns about the NATO military build up in eastern Europe, as both sides agreed to focus on reducing tension in the region.  This message is mirrored in recent statement of Russian diplomats, who continually express their openness to improve relations with the US.  While I believe that a conflict is unlikely in the near term, we should keep an eye on Putin’s plans for the March 2018 election.  It’s unclear what Putin plans to do in his last year in office, should he decide not to run for re-election.

The other major event that happened this week is that Sweden, a NATO ally but not a NATO member, announced it was bringing back military conscription.  Last year, the Swedish government sent out a letter which read, in part, that civil authorities should “increase their ability to resist an armed attack against Sweden from a qualified opponent.” In May, Sweden will hold “Contingency Week,” in which citizens will practice hunkering down for a 72 hour exercise. This is part of a much larger trend across Europe where governments are urging their citizens to prepare for a potential disruption or conflict.

 

Read File:

Sweden reinstating conscription as unease over Russia rises

Russian spy ship spotted off Florida coast

Russia continues military modernization with new attack aircraft

US Army’s 2nd SCR heads to eastern Poland in deterrence mission

 

US-China SITREP

News reports published last week announced that the US and South Korea had reached a land deal for the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) system.  The THAAD deployment is in response to a series of missile tests by North Korea, and is specifically designed to shoot down ballistic missiles aimed at South Korea.  (Japan is also considering a THAAD deployment of its own.)  China has warned for months that a THAAD deployment would have repercussions; in part because the THAAD’s X-band radar is able to track aircraft over most of mainland China but also because it disrupts China’s desired supremacy in the region.  The THAAD battery would almost certainly be used in a war with China.  This week China retaliated over the THAAD deal, and banned tourist trips to South Korea, which is expected to result in a heavy cost for regions of South Korea’s economy.

Chinese publications have warned that war with the US is a “practical reality,” while US Navy officials continue to state that they plan to operate in international waters of the South China Sea, despite the Chinese military build up.  What we’ve observed for the past several years — namely that there’s a growing likelihood of confrontation — is escalating over the past several months.  The issue as the White House and Pentagon see it, is that China plans to use its military to control the international waters of the South China Sea to illegally ensure for itself a strategic economic advantage over its much smaller neighbors like the Philippines and Vietnam.  And this comes at a time when China’s neighbors are also engaging in the arms race, albeit at a much slower pace.  The problem is that Chinese military advancements are now outpacing the US, and the US is losing its military advantage in this conflict.  The “window of opportunity” to prevent China from dominating US allies in the region is closing, and I think that greatly increases the chances of a conflict, which is one that gets more costly over time.

 

Read File:

Are the Chinese conducting patrols in Afghanistan?

Japan doubles the number of fighter jets for intercepting Chinese warplanes

Vietnam commissions two new attack submarines

 

Defense in Brief:

This week, retired Lt General Carter Ham wrote an article encouraging leaders in government and the military to focus on forward deploying more military assets.  Previously the commander of US Army Europe, General Ham’s chief concern is the lack of capability to rapidly deploy forces in the event of a Russian conflict.  The military’s strategic mobility has suffered in the past decade, and the article outlines that the US military lacks the ability to move by air or sea to meet the demands of a European conflict.  That, in turn, he says makes the US look weak.  His solution is to push more units to Europe now to avoid rapid deployment later.  I believe this to be good indicator that we will see more military build up in Europe, especially as SECDEF Mattis and National Security Advisor McMaster are concerned about a future Russian conflict. (SOURCE)

 


PIR3: What are the current indicators of organized political violence?

Political Violence Roll-Up:

DHS: Anti-Trump anger is a driver of “domestic terrorist violence”

IGD: Let’s become ungovernable

MO: Protests spark around Springfield

SC: Clemson University Antifa justifies violence

WA: Crowd protests deportation at detention center in Tacoma

 

Antifa Roll-Up:

Twin Cities Anti-Fascists Smash ’White Lives Matter’ Rally

Antifascists: We can make racists afraid again

Advice for the Resistance: Don’t just resist, mobilize

Antifa Rising: South Florida

 

Black Lives Matter Roll-Up:

Google pledges $11 million to Black Lives Matter

Whatever happened to Black Lives Matter?

 

Black Panthers/Black Separatist Roll-Up:

NOLA:  Black Panther skit at high school causes uproar

How Black Panthers set a model for government


PIR4: What are the current indicators of economic, financial, or monetary instability that lead to worsening economic conditions or civil unrest?

Bank of America warns of market’s “great fall”

A recent Bank of America statement warns that the next rate hike by the Federal Reserve, which could come on or around 15 March, could signal the end of the bull market.  [W]hile for the moment we remain tactically bullish, we need to acknowledge the vulnerability of risk once the Fed gets going raising rates…”  “[T]his acceleration of US financial tightening is a huge deal, and could in time become hugely negative.”  Bank of America recommended shorting the S&P 500 for the second half of 2017, indicating that the market could be set up for a large consolidation.

 

Beware the Ides of March:  Stockman warns “everything will grind of a halt”

Investor David Stockman has been a pessimist for a long time.  In a recent interview, he says, “Donald Trump is in a trap.  Today the debt is $20 trillion.  It’s 106% of GDP. . . .Trump is inheriting a built-in deficit of $10 trillion over the next decade under current policies that are built in.  Yet, he wants more defense spending, not less.  He wants drastic sweeping tax cuts for corporations and individuals.  He wants to spend more money on border security and law enforcement.  He’s going to do more for the veterans.  He wants this big trillion dollar infrastructure program.  You put all that together and it’s madness.  It doesn’t even begin to add up, and it won’t happen when you are struggling with the $10 trillion of debt that’s coming down the pike and the $20 trillion that’s already on the books.”

He continues:  “I think what people are missing is this date, March 15th 2017.  That’s the day that this debt ceiling holiday that Obama and Boehner put together right before the last election in October of 2015.  That holiday expires.  The debt ceiling will freeze in at $20 trillion.  It will then be law.  It will be a hard stop.  The Treasury will have roughly $200 billion in cash.  We are burning cash at a $75 billion a month rate.  By summer, they will be out of cash.  Then we will be in the mother of all debt ceiling crises.  Everything will grind to a halt.  I think we will have a government shutdown.  There will not be Obama Care repeal and replace.  There will be no tax cut.  There will be no infrastructure stimulus.  There will be just one giant fiscal bloodbath over a debt ceiling that has to be increased and no one wants to vote for.” (SOURCE)

 

This publication has been distributed for educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.

 

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Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

3 Comments

  1. We have already seen states feel emboldened like Arizona with HB 1142. Thank goodness it was defeated. This bill effectively made anyone who knows or should have known that someone they associated with would commit a crime during a protest a conspirator to that crime. Also subject to asset forfeiture. I’m sure we haven’t seen the last of the bills like this.

  2. Reading through some of those accounts makes it clear this is going to escalate quickly at some point. These are the seeds of the death squads see in the Spanish civil war.

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